韶关学院学报
韶關學院學報
소관학원학보
Journal of Shaoguan University(Social Science Edition)
2015年
4期
4~7
,共null页
马尔可夫链 转移概率 极限分布 年降水量
馬爾可伕鏈 轉移概率 極限分佈 年降水量
마이가부련 전이개솔 겁한분포 년강수량
Markovchain;transitionprobability;limiting distribution;annual precipitation
根据韶关市1951-2012年降水量的历史数据,采用均值-标准差分级法进行状态分级,将这62年分成枯水年、偏枯年、正常年、偏丰年、丰水年5种状态.运用马尔可夫链预测方法,验证了韶关市的年降水量序列满足马尔可夫性,建立了韶关市年降水量的马尔可夫链预测模型,预测结果与实际情况相吻合.最后运用极限分布估计年降水量各状态的重现期.
根據韶關市1951-2012年降水量的歷史數據,採用均值-標準差分級法進行狀態分級,將這62年分成枯水年、偏枯年、正常年、偏豐年、豐水年5種狀態.運用馬爾可伕鏈預測方法,驗證瞭韶關市的年降水量序列滿足馬爾可伕性,建立瞭韶關市年降水量的馬爾可伕鏈預測模型,預測結果與實際情況相吻閤.最後運用極限分佈估計年降水量各狀態的重現期.
근거소관시1951-2012년강수량적역사수거,채용균치-표준차분급법진행상태분급,장저62년분성고수년、편고년、정상년、편봉년、봉수년5충상태.운용마이가부련예측방법,험증료소관시적년강수량서렬만족마이가부성,건립료소관시년강수량적마이가부련예측모형,예측결과여실제정황상문합.최후운용겁한분포고계년강수량각상태적중현기.
According to the historical annual precipitation data of Shaoguan city from 1951 to 2012,the state graded using the mean and standard deviation classification method, the past 62 years are classified into five states： droughtyear, weak drought year, normal year, weak water-logging year and water-logging year. Taking Markov chain forecasting methods to verify the sequence of annual precipitation of Shaoguan city to meet Markov property, a Markov chain model of annual precipitation of Shaoguan city was established and the predicted results coincided with the actual situation.Finally, it would use limiting distribution to estimate the return period of each annual precipitation state.
