CAJ | 학술논문

本文从定性和定量两个角度进行分析流动性监管新规实施对我国经济金融的影响,结果表明：流动性监管新规的实施将加剧商业银行资产、负债的种类、期限等结构调整的压力。在参照巴塞尔委员会相关模型的基础上,运用面板二值概率模型和广义矩估计,对12家上市银行2006—2012年度非平衡面板数据进行的定量分析发现：第一,提高流动性标准有助于降低银行危机发生的概率。第二,我国实施流动性监管新规的成本相对较高。第三,实施流动性监管新规,长期而言将对我国经济产生正向净收益。
본문종정성화정량량개각도진행분석류동성감관신규실시대아국경제금융적영향,결과표명：류동성감관신규적실시장가극상업은행자산、부채적충류、기한등결구조정적압력。재삼조파새이위원회상관모형적기출상,운용면판이치개솔모형화엄의구고계,대12가상시은행2006—2012년도비평형면판수거진행적정량분석발현：제일,제고류동성표준유조우강저은행위궤발생적개솔。제이,아국실시류동성감관신규적성본상대교고。제삼,실시류동성감관신규,장기이언장대아국경제산생정향정수익。
Using qualitative and quantitative method, this paper analyses the effects of the new liquidity regulations on the economic and financial system of China. The results show that the implementation of the new liquidity regulations would aggravate the pressures on commercial banks for structural adjustments in assets, liabilities and term structures. Based on the Basel Committee model, quantitative analysis on 12 listed banks during 2006-2012 by using unbalanced-panel binary probability model and the generalized method of moments has been made. The empirical results show that improving liquidity standards helps to reduce the probability of banking crises. In the short run, the cost of implementing the new regulations is relatively high. If LCR and NSFR increase 1%, China＇s GDP growth rate would decrease by about 0.085% to 0.061%. But in the long run, the implementation of the new regulations on the liquidity would generate a net positive effect on China＇s economy.