CAJ | 학술논문

本文以巴拉萨一萨缪尔森假说（Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis，BSH）为分析框架．采用1995-2011年中国28个省份的面板数据。从中国整体及各区域层面研究了外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment，FDI）通过技术进步对劳动生产率的传导作用，实证分析了外商直接投资对人民币实际汇率的影响。结果表明，整体来看中国的FDI流入通过提高贸易部门的相对劳动生产率促进人民币实际汇率升值。符合巴拉萨一萨缪尔森效应。分区域的结果发现，FDI对人民币汇率存在区域差异，东部地区FDI对人民币汇率具有反向作用．而在中西部。FDI则会使人民币存在升值压力。实证结果表明，我国应大力提升服务业生产率。印证了我国经济转型、产业升级的必要性和迫切性。在制定我国的引资政策时．一方面应考虑区域差异，另一方面应加强与产业政策、贸易政策的协调，促进国家整体经济福利的提高。
본문이파랍살일살무이삼가설（Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis，BSH）위분석광가．채용1995-2011년중국28개성빈적면판수거。종중국정체급각구역층면연구료외상직접투자（Foreign Direct Investment，FDI）통과기술진보대노동생산솔적전도작용，실증분석료외상직접투자대인민폐실제회솔적영향。결과표명，정체래간중국적FDI류입통과제고무역부문적상대노동생산솔촉진인민폐실제회솔승치。부합파랍살일살무이삼효응。분구역적결과발현，FDI대인민폐회솔존재구역차이，동부지구FDI대인민폐회솔구유반향작용．이재중서부。FDI칙회사인민폐존재승치압력。실증결과표명，아국응대력제승복무업생산솔。인증료아국경제전형、산업승급적필요성화박절성。재제정아국적인자정책시．일방면응고필구역차이，령일방면응가강여산업정책、무역정책적협조，촉진국가정체경제복리적제고。
Based on the framework of Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis, this paper makes use of the panel data of 28provinces from 1995 to 2011 to study the conduction of FDI to productivity at the country level and regional level, and teststhe influence of FDI on RMB exchange rate with the data of productivity growth. The result shows that RMB exchange ratefluctuation goes in line with the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in China： FDI improves productivity in tradable sectors whichresults in the real appreciation of RMB. At the regional level, we find that there are regional differences regarding the effectsof FDI on RMB exchange rates. In the eastern area, FDI has negative impact on RMB exchange rate; in the central and west-ern area, FDI may result in the appreciation pressure of RMB exchange rate. The study shows that efforts should be made toenhance the productivity of service sectors and the task of economic transition and industrial upgrading is both necessary andurgent. While making FDI policies, we must take regional differences into consideration on one hand, and coordinate FDIpolicies with industry policy and trade policy to improve the whole economic welfare on the other hand.