CAJ | 학술논문

针对中美气候变化联食声明中公布的各自2020年后减摊目标。本文通过情景分析的方法，测算了中美两国实现各自目标所需要采取的行动和努力。比较了两国在（ⅢP碳排放强度下降、新能源和可再生能源发展规模、CO，排放达峰时间及其所处发展阶段、以及电力部门减排四个方面的努力程度和效果。通过比较可以看到，在中美两国分别实现各自既定目标的情况下。中国单位GDP碳强度年下降率将达4％，其幅度高予美国在2025年减排28％目标下的年下降率（3．59％）；中国的新能源和可再生能源发展也更为迅速。年均增速离达约8％，2030年非化石能源总供应量可达11．6亿tce约为届时美国非化石能源总供应量的2倍；在CO2，排放达峰值方面，中国实现CO2排放峰值时所处的发展阶段要早予美国达峰值时的经济社会发展阶段，中国在强化低碳发展情景目标下可在2030年左右实现碳排放达峰值。且峰值时人均CO2摊放约8t水平，低于美国CO2排放峰值耐的人均排放19．5t的水平；在电力部门的减排努力方面。中国在未来比较高的电力需求背景下，2030年可实现比201f年单位千瓦时的CO，强度下降35％，而美国同期则只需下降约20％即可实现其电力部门的减排目标。上述几项指标的比较更可突显中国2020年后的减排目标是非常宏伟且极具挑战的。在实现2030卑减排目标的行动中，中国政府还需要进一步强化和细化新能源和可再生能源的发展目标。进一步分解和落实全国及各省市的减排目标和减排行动，持续推进节能与加强新能源技术的创新，在经济高速发展的同时协调好经济、能源和环境的问题，早日实现低碳发展和生态文明。
침대중미기후변화련식성명중공포적각자2020년후감탄목표。본문통과정경분석적방법，측산료중미량국실현각자목표소수요채취적행동화노력。비교료량국재（ⅢP탄배방강도하강、신능원화가재생능원발전규모、CO，배방체봉시간급기소처발전계단、이급전력부문감배사개방면적노력정도화효과。통과비교가이간도，재중미량국분별실현각자기정목표적정황하。중국단위GDP탄강도년하강솔장체4％，기폭도고여미국재2025년감배28％목표하적년하강솔（3．59％）；중국적신능원화가재생능원발전야경위신속。년균증속리체약8％，2030년비화석능원총공응량가체11．6억tce약위계시미국비화석능원총공응량적2배；재CO2，배방체봉치방면，중국실현CO2배방봉치시소처적발전계단요조여미국체봉치시적경제사회발전계단，중국재강화저탄발전정경목표하가재2030년좌우실현탄배방체봉치。차봉치시인균CO2탄방약8t수평，저우미국CO2배방봉치내적인균배방19．5t적수평；재전력부문적감배노력방면。중국재미래비교고적전력수구배경하，2030년가실현비201f년단위천와시적CO，강도하강35％，이미국동기칙지수하강약20％즉가실현기전력부문적감배목표。상술궤항지표적비교경가돌현중국2020년후적감배목표시비상굉위차겁구도전적。재실현2030비감배목표적행동중，중국정부환수요진일보강화화세화신능원화가재생능원적발전목표。진일보분해화락실전국급각성시적감배목표화감배행동，지속추진절능여가강신능원기술적창신，재경제고속발전적동시협조호경제、능원화배경적문제，조일실현저탄발전화생태문명。
China and the United States have recently released their post-2020 CO2 emission reduction targets under their Joint Announcement on Climate Change. To have a better understanding of the commitments of the two nations, we calculate and compare the efforts and/or actions that the nations would need to take to achieve the targets in terms of carbon intensity reduction rate of the economy, scale of new and renewable energy applications, the development stage where CO2 emission would need to peak, and power sector decarbonization rate. We have found that, under the circumstances of above two countries to honor their commitment, China would need to have a higher rate of reduction in carbon intensity of the economy （ annually around 4% ） which is higher than United States （ annually around 3.59% ） based on its 28% target. China would also need to take more accelerated efforts to promote new and renewable energy development and deployment than the United States. China＇ s new and renewable supply will need to maintain an annual growth of 8% on average, and reach 1.16 billion tons of coal equivalent （tce） in 2030, approximately twice of the amount in the United States. China will also need to achieve its CO2 emission peaking in an earlier development stage and at a much lower per capita CO2 emission （about 8t/person） than the United State did （19.5t/person）. It is projected that China will need to lower the carbon emission per kWh in its power sector by 35% from 2011 to 2030 to achieve its target while the United States only by 20% over the same period. According to our comparative analysis, China＇ s post-2020 CO2 emission reduction target is very ambitious and challengeable to achieve. The government should to take positive efforts to achieve this target. The efforts not only includes to strengthen and to refine the development planning of new and renewable energy, to decompose the reduction target and action to provinces and cities, but also includes promoting energy saving and improving technological innovation of new and renewable energy. After coordinating the economy, energy and the environment in rapid economic and social development, China will early realize low-carbon development and ecological civilization.