CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于全球温升目标到各国减排承诺转换过程中面临的各种不确定性，本文以IPCC第五次评估报告中2℃温升目标对应的排放空间为基础。探讨了不同排放路径、基准情景、分配方案及方案关键参数的选择对各国碳配额的影响。研究得出：较发展中国家，分配方案的不同会给发达国家碳配颧带来更大不确定性．且当前排放水平与全球平均值差异越大的国家。不确定性越大：分配方案中关键参数的不同也会对结果有一定影响。如趋同类方案中的趋同时间、历史责任方案的累积起始年和逐步参与方案的参与阈值等，且累计起始年越早、参与阈值越高对发展中国家越为有利；全球允许碳排放空间对各国碳配额有较大影响，发达国家的碳配额（多方案的均值）呈现随全球排放空间增大．增幅更大的特征，而发展中国家的此变化趋势则相反；除部分有参与阈值的方案外。基准情景引起的不确定性相对较小。尽管存在各种不确定性，但可以确定的是在全球2℃温升目标下。各国未来的碳配额是非常有限的．我国也不例外。故我们应着眼未来、长远规划。同时当前应做好低碳能源布局．为应对气候变化夯实基础。
감우전구온승목표도각국감배승낙전환과정중면림적각충불학정성，본문이IPCC제오차평고보고중2℃온승목표대응적배방공간위기출。탐토료불동배방로경、기준정경、분배방안급방안관건삼수적선택대각국탄배액적영향。연구득출：교발전중국가，분배방안적불동회급발체국가탄배권대래경대불학정성．차당전배방수평여전구평균치차이월대적국가。불학정성월대：분배방안중관건삼수적불동야회대결과유일정영향。여추동류방안중적추동시간、역사책임방안적루적기시년화축보삼여방안적삼여역치등，차루계기시년월조、삼여역치월고대발전중국가월위유리；전구윤허탄배방공간대각국탄배액유교대영향，발체국가적탄배액（다방안적균치）정현수전구배방공간증대．증폭경대적특정，이발전중국가적차변화추세칙상반；제부분유삼여역치적방안외。기준정경인기적불학정성상대교소。진관존재각충불학정성，단가이학정적시재전구2℃온승목표하。각국미래적탄배액시비상유한적．아국야불예외。고아문응착안미래、장원규화。동시당전응주호저탄능원포국．위응대기후변화항실기출。
Due to the uncertainty associated with the transition from global warming target to national commitments on emissions reduction, this study analyzed the impacts on national carbon quotas with various emission pathways, baseline scenarios, allocation schemes and parameters associated with these schemes, which are based on the emissions capacity as a result of the global warming target of two-degree temperature increase identified in the Fifth Assessment Report （AR5） of IPCC. The results indicated that：（~） various schemes for quota allocation resulted in higher uncertainty for developed countries than developing countries, and the uncertainty was even higher for countries that have greater differences between their current emissions and the global average ; （~） within the same allocation scheme, quota allocation varied from the selection of key parameters, such as, convergence time, starting year for historical responsibility and participation threshold, and developing countries would obtain greater carbon quotas with earlier starting year for responsibility and higher participation threshold; （~） The global carbon allowable capacity had a great impact on each country＇ s carbon permits, and with the increase of global capacity, it would result in a larger increase in quotas for developed countries than developing countries; （~） The uncertainty in quota allocation brought by the differences in baseline scenarios is relatively low under most allocation schemes, expect those schemes with thresholds. Despite of the uncertainties, it is certain that future emissions spaces for all countries including China are limited under the global warming target of two-degree temperature increase. We should conduct long-term planning on low-carbon development, develop low-carbon technologies, and invest on related research concurrently.