中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2015年
6期
37~46
,共null页
排放峰值 能源总羞 综合评估
排放峰值 能源總羞 綜閤評估
배방봉치 능원총수 종합평고
emission peaking; energy cap; integrated assessment
中国当前面临突出的社会、环境等多重问题。解决这些问蹶需要新的思路和视野，转变发展方式、实现绿色低碳发展是以激进式还是渐进式的改革来推动需要得到合适的研究和试验。中国近期寰布了计划在2030年左右达到碳排放峰值，本文将就此展开重点探讨中国实现第二个百年目标的发展路径和排放控制目标，特别是围绕中阑的排放峰值能否尽早出现和以何种水平出现等问题展开讨论，并从工业化国家的发展轨迹和中国当前的发展阶段两方面来分析中国实现排放总量控制和峰值的可行区间和战略定位。基于IAMC模型对中国实现排放总量控制和峰值的四种路径和情景进行深入分析。并对相关条件进行审慎的检验，以提出现阶段合理的目标建议。情景结果表明。“十五五”期闻是实现碳排放峰值在120亿盹和8．5盹／人左右水平的较好机会窗口，在该条件下2030年经济总量相对于常规路径累计偏移约3％，每年平均增速下降约0．2%。石油和天然气进口依存度有可能分别超过70％和45％，非化石能源和电力的比重分别要突破20％和45％。同时。终端消费的电气化程度大幅提升，电能比接近50％，劳动和资本生产率要实现翻番，二氧化碳强度相比干2005年降低至65％以上，未来15年累计减排超过200亿吨。
中國噹前麵臨突齣的社會、環境等多重問題。解決這些問蹶需要新的思路和視野，轉變髮展方式、實現綠色低碳髮展是以激進式還是漸進式的改革來推動需要得到閤適的研究和試驗。中國近期寰佈瞭計劃在2030年左右達到碳排放峰值，本文將就此展開重點探討中國實現第二箇百年目標的髮展路徑和排放控製目標，特彆是圍繞中闌的排放峰值能否儘早齣現和以何種水平齣現等問題展開討論，併從工業化國傢的髮展軌跡和中國噹前的髮展階段兩方麵來分析中國實現排放總量控製和峰值的可行區間和戰略定位。基于IAMC模型對中國實現排放總量控製和峰值的四種路徑和情景進行深入分析。併對相關條件進行審慎的檢驗，以提齣現階段閤理的目標建議。情景結果錶明。“十五五”期聞是實現碳排放峰值在120億盹和8．5盹／人左右水平的較好機會窗口，在該條件下2030年經濟總量相對于常規路徑纍計偏移約3％，每年平均增速下降約0．2%。石油和天然氣進口依存度有可能分彆超過70％和45％，非化石能源和電力的比重分彆要突破20％和45％。同時。終耑消費的電氣化程度大幅提升，電能比接近50％，勞動和資本生產率要實現翻番，二氧化碳彊度相比榦2005年降低至65％以上，未來15年纍計減排超過200億噸。
중국당전면림돌출적사회、배경등다중문제。해결저사문궐수요신적사로화시야，전변발전방식、실현록색저탄발전시이격진식환시점진식적개혁래추동수요득도합괄적연구화시험。중국근기환포료계화재2030년좌우체도탄배방봉치，본문장취차전개중점탐토중국실현제이개백년목표적발전로경화배방공제목표，특별시위요중란적배방봉치능부진조출현화이하충수평출현등문제전개토론，병종공업화국가적발전궤적화중국당전적발전계단량방면래분석중국실현배방총량공제화봉치적가행구간화전략정위。기우IAMC모형대중국실현배방총량공제화봉치적사충로경화정경진행심입분석。병대상관조건진행심신적검험，이제출현계단합리적목표건의。정경결과표명。“십오오”기문시실현탄배방봉치재120억순화8．5순／인좌우수평적교호궤회창구，재해조건하2030년경제총량상대우상규로경루계편이약3％，매년평균증속하강약0．2%。석유화천연기진구의존도유가능분별초과70％화45％，비화석능원화전력적비중분별요돌파20％화45％。동시。종단소비적전기화정도대폭제승，전능비접근50％，노동화자본생산솔요실현번번，이양화탄강도상비간2005년강저지65％이상，미래15년루계감배초과200억둔。
China is currently facing various social and environmental problems, and the solutions requires new vision and ideas, whether economic transformation and decarbonization are expected to process as radical or incremental reforms need robust studies and practical demonstrations. China recently declared the target of emission peaking around 2030, and this study explores such pathways in China beyond 2020, especially modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China by an integrated assessment model IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here four scenarios derived from the developed countries＇ historical pathways and our national circumstances are developed to assess the comprehensive impacts on economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China, and proposed the appropriate policy recommendations. The findings suggest that the period of 2025 to 2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve the carbon emission peaking at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 tons per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually -0.2% average and cumulatively -3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively then while the non-fossil energy and electricity share increase to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity-energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in next 15 years.
