中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2015年
6期
47~52
,共null页
低碳发展 能源结构 核电经济性 中长期规模
低碳髮展 能源結構 覈電經濟性 中長期規模
저탄발전 능원결구 핵전경제성 중장기규모
low-carbon development; energy structure ; nuclear power economical; mid-term and long-term scales
面对能源紧缺和环境约束问题，世界各国纷纷投入到新能源开发中来。核电因其清洁、高效、低碳、经济等特性逐渐受到各国的青睐。福岛核事故后，世界核电发展进入低潮，中国于2012年11月重新启动核电项目建设。在国际低碳发展背景和约束下，分析中国核电发展情况及发展空间与规模显得十分有必要。本文根据中国发展核电的政策形势，结合当前国际低碳发展背景和国内能源情况，阐述了在降低碳排放和优化能源结构保障能源安全方面，中国发展核电的积极作用。其次。在借鉴国内外研究数据的基础上，讨论和比较了在基于碳价的基础上核电项目的经济性，得出在考虑碳排放的环境外部性情况下，核电经济优势明显，同时当贴现率为5％时，核电极具竞争力。再次，在电力行业碳排放约束下，采用情景分析方法，分析中国核电发展中长期的适宜规模：2020年装机容量为0．5—0．7亿kW，发电量为3750—5250亿kwh（设备年利用小时数按7500h计算）。总发电占比为5％-7％；2030年装机容量为1．2—1．4亿kW，总发电占比为7％-10％。最后，针对未来核电发展规模的扩大，提出了健全核安全文化。加大安全管理监督力度；建立铀矿储备保障体系；注重核电产业链建设，提升核电设备国产化水平；激励核电企业自主创新．参与国际竞争等政策建议。
麵對能源緊缺和環境約束問題，世界各國紛紛投入到新能源開髮中來。覈電因其清潔、高效、低碳、經濟等特性逐漸受到各國的青睞。福島覈事故後，世界覈電髮展進入低潮，中國于2012年11月重新啟動覈電項目建設。在國際低碳髮展揹景和約束下，分析中國覈電髮展情況及髮展空間與規模顯得十分有必要。本文根據中國髮展覈電的政策形勢，結閤噹前國際低碳髮展揹景和國內能源情況，闡述瞭在降低碳排放和優化能源結構保障能源安全方麵，中國髮展覈電的積極作用。其次。在藉鑒國內外研究數據的基礎上，討論和比較瞭在基于碳價的基礎上覈電項目的經濟性，得齣在攷慮碳排放的環境外部性情況下，覈電經濟優勢明顯，同時噹貼現率為5％時，覈電極具競爭力。再次，在電力行業碳排放約束下，採用情景分析方法，分析中國覈電髮展中長期的適宜規模：2020年裝機容量為0．5—0．7億kW，髮電量為3750—5250億kwh（設備年利用小時數按7500h計算）。總髮電佔比為5％-7％；2030年裝機容量為1．2—1．4億kW，總髮電佔比為7％-10％。最後，針對未來覈電髮展規模的擴大，提齣瞭健全覈安全文化。加大安全管理鑑督力度；建立鈾礦儲備保障體繫；註重覈電產業鏈建設，提升覈電設備國產化水平；激勵覈電企業自主創新．參與國際競爭等政策建議。
면대능원긴결화배경약속문제，세계각국분분투입도신능원개발중래。핵전인기청길、고효、저탄、경제등특성축점수도각국적청래。복도핵사고후，세계핵전발전진입저조，중국우2012년11월중신계동핵전항목건설。재국제저탄발전배경화약속하，분석중국핵전발전정황급발전공간여규모현득십분유필요。본문근거중국발전핵전적정책형세，결합당전국제저탄발전배경화국내능원정황，천술료재강저탄배방화우화능원결구보장능원안전방면，중국발전핵전적적겁작용。기차。재차감국내외연구수거적기출상，토론화비교료재기우탄개적기출상핵전항목적경제성，득출재고필탄배방적배경외부성정황하，핵전경제우세명현，동시당첩현솔위5％시，핵전겁구경쟁력。재차，재전역행업탄배방약속하，채용정경분석방법，분석중국핵전발전중장기적괄의규모：2020년장궤용량위0．5—0．7억kW，발전량위3750—5250억kwh（설비년이용소시수안7500h계산）。총발전점비위5％-7％；2030년장궤용량위1．2—1．4억kW，총발전점비위7％-10％。최후，침대미래핵전발전규모적확대，제출료건전핵안전문화。가대안전관리감독력도；건립유광저비보장체계；주중핵전산업련건설，제승핵전설비국산화수평；격려핵전기업자주창신．삼여국제경쟁등정책건의。
Facing the energy shortage and environmental constraints, countries all over the world invested in developing new energy. As a kind of new energy, nuclear power is favored gradually by the characteristics of cleanness, safety, low-carbon, economical and highly supplying capability. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the world＇s nuclear power industry turned into the low tide. However, China restarted its nuclear power project in November, 2012. Under the international background of low carbon development, it is necessary to carry out some researches on the development of China＇s nuclear power. According to the policies of the development of nuclear power, considering the background of the international low-carbon development and the domestic energy situation, this paper illustrated the positive role nuclear power played in reducing CO2 emission, optimizing energy structure and securing energy safety. Refer to research results both at home and abroad, this paper discussed the economical viability of nuclear power based on carbon price, the results show that nuclear power has significant economic advantages when considering the externality of CO2 emission, what is more,if discount rate is as low as 5% , nuclear power would be very competitive. We analyzed the scale of China＇s nuclear power based on scenarios of restraint of CO2 emission, the proper mid-term and long-term scales could be estimated with following results ： by 2020, the installed capacity is 50 - 70 million kilowatts ; power generation output is 375 - 525 billion kWh ; and percentage of nuclear power in total power output is 5% -7% ; by 2030, the installed capacity is 120 - 140 million kilowatt; percentage of nuclear power in total power output is 7% - 10%. Finally, some proposals were put forward to future development of China＇s nuclear power.
