CAJ | 학술논문

在可持续发展的宏观背景下，节约有限物质和能量资源，减少废弃物和环境有害物的排放是环保、低碳的前提，而交通运输业是降低碳排放量的重要领域。因此。微观层面梳理北京交通运输业发展及碳排放状况，并分析其减排潜力，对于促进北京市的低碳发展同样具有积极意义。论文阐述了2（R）1—2011年北京交通运输业发展状况。并对2005—2011年北京市交通运输能源消费而产生的碳排放量进行了测算。从各类消费能源的碳排放量的动态变化得出：煤油的碳排放量是北京市交通运输碳排放量的最主要来源。进而基于交通运输的能源使用结构、道路调控政策措施、不同交通方式结构等视角。采用情景分析方法。依次设置低度、中度和高度三种情景模式．对北京市交通运输业的碳减排情景进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：①北京市交通运输业持续发展．多元化复合型的交运网络目趋完善；②北京市交通运输的能源消耗所产生碳排放量不断增长。主要原因是大量煤油和柴油能源的耗用；③通过改变交通运输的能源使用结构可以有效调减北京市交通运输业的碳排放量。基于全文分析得到如下启示：①北京市交通运输碳排放在未来十年具有较大的减排空间。降低煤油、柴油在能源消费总量中所占比例，提高天然气、电力在能源消费总置中所占的比例，将有助于减少碳排放的总量；②小汽车对于整个城市交通系统能源消耗量的边际效应远远大于其他的交通方式；③北京市机动车申购摇号制度、机动车尾号限行措施以及对新能源汽车的大力推广是控制小汽车快速增长，减少其能源消费量和碳排放量的必要政策手段。在城市的发展过程中。公共交通具有节地、节能以及环保的优势。应该大力倡导公共交通，加大城市公共交通的投入力度。使得人们更多地选择公共交通出行，从而达到节能减排的目的。在可持續髮展的宏觀揹景下，節約有限物質和能量資源，減少廢棄物和環境有害物的排放是環保、低碳的前提，而交通運輸業是降低碳排放量的重要領域。因此。微觀層麵梳理北京交通運輸業髮展及碳排放狀況，併分析其減排潛力，對于促進北京市的低碳髮展同樣具有積極意義。論文闡述瞭2（R）1—2011年北京交通運輸業髮展狀況。併對2005—2011年北京市交通運輸能源消費而產生的碳排放量進行瞭測算。從各類消費能源的碳排放量的動態變化得齣：煤油的碳排放量是北京市交通運輸碳排放量的最主要來源。進而基于交通運輸的能源使用結構、道路調控政策措施、不同交通方式結構等視角。採用情景分析方法。依次設置低度、中度和高度三種情景模式．對北京市交通運輸業的碳減排情景進行瞭比較分析。研究結果錶明：①北京市交通運輸業持續髮展．多元化複閤型的交運網絡目趨完善；②北京市交通運輸的能源消耗所產生碳排放量不斷增長。主要原因是大量煤油和柴油能源的耗用；③通過改變交通運輸的能源使用結構可以有效調減北京市交通運輸業的碳排放量。基于全文分析得到如下啟示：①北京市交通運輸碳排放在未來十年具有較大的減排空間。降低煤油、柴油在能源消費總量中所佔比例，提高天然氣、電力在能源消費總置中所佔的比例，將有助于減少碳排放的總量；②小汽車對于整箇城市交通繫統能源消耗量的邊際效應遠遠大于其他的交通方式；③北京市機動車申購搖號製度、機動車尾號限行措施以及對新能源汽車的大力推廣是控製小汽車快速增長，減少其能源消費量和碳排放量的必要政策手段。在城市的髮展過程中。公共交通具有節地、節能以及環保的優勢。應該大力倡導公共交通，加大城市公共交通的投入力度。使得人們更多地選擇公共交通齣行，從而達到節能減排的目的。
재가지속발전적굉관배경하，절약유한물질화능량자원，감소폐기물화배경유해물적배방시배보、저탄적전제，이교통운수업시강저탄배방량적중요영역。인차。미관층면소리북경교통운수업발전급탄배방상황，병분석기감배잠력，대우촉진북경시적저탄발전동양구유적겁의의。논문천술료2（R）1—2011년북경교통운수업발전상황。병대2005—2011년북경시교통운수능원소비이산생적탄배방량진행료측산。종각류소비능원적탄배방량적동태변화득출：매유적탄배방량시북경시교통운수탄배방량적최주요래원。진이기우교통운수적능원사용결구、도로조공정책조시、불동교통방식결구등시각。채용정경분석방법。의차설치저도、중도화고도삼충정경모식．대북경시교통운수업적탄감배정경진행료비교분석。연구결과표명：①북경시교통운수업지속발전．다원화복합형적교운망락목추완선；②북경시교통운수적능원소모소산생탄배방량불단증장。주요원인시대량매유화시유능원적모용；③통과개변교통운수적능원사용결구가이유효조감북경시교통운수업적탄배방량。기우전문분석득도여하계시：①북경시교통운수탄배방재미래십년구유교대적감배공간。강저매유、시유재능원소비총량중소점비례，제고천연기、전력재능원소비총치중소점적비례，장유조우감소탄배방적총량；②소기차대우정개성시교통계통능원소모량적변제효응원원대우기타적교통방식；③북경시궤동차신구요호제도、궤동차미호한행조시이급대신능원기차적대력추엄시공제소기차쾌속증장，감소기능원소비량화탄배방량적필요정책수단。재성시적발전과정중。공공교통구유절지、절능이급배보적우세。응해대력창도공공교통，가대성시공공교통적투입력도。사득인문경다지선택공공교통출행，종이체도절능감배적목적。
Under the background of sustainable development, conservation of energy resources and reduction of waste and environmental emissions is the prerequisite of environmental protection and low carbon development. The transportation is an important field of carbon emissions reduction. It is a positive significance for promoting the low carbon development in Beijing of combing the transportation and carbon emissions status and analyzing the emission reduction potential on the micro-scale. The development status of transportation from 2001 to 2011 in Beijing was elaborated in the paper, and the carbon emissions caused by energy consumption of transportation from 2005 to 2011 were also calculated. Drawn from the dynamic change of carbon emissions of different kinds of energy consumption, kerosene is the main source of transportation emissions in Beijing. On the perspective of energy using structures, road controlling measures and traffic mode structures, the low, moderate and high emission reduction scenarios are set to analyze the carbon emissions reduction of transportation in Beijing. The results is shown as follows ：（~）The transportation in Beijing is keeping sustainable development, and the diversified type transportation network is becoming more and more perfect; （~）The carbon emissions of transportation consumption is on the rise, and the main reason is the wide use of kerosene and diesel oil ; （~ the carbon emissions can be decreased by changing the energy structure of transportation. Some enlightenments are obtained as follows：（~The carbon emissions of transportation has a larger reduction space in the next ten years. Reducing the proportion of kerosene and diesel oil occupied in total energy consumption and increasing the proportion of natural gas and electricity is helpful to reduce the carbon emissions in Beijing;（~ The marginal effect of car is far greater than other means of transportation on the energy consumption of the whole city traffic system ; （~） The vehicle purchase lottery system,the traffic restrictions measures and the promotion of new energy vehicle are the necessary policy means to control the rapid growth of car and reduce the energy consumption and the carbon emissions. The public transportation has land-saving, energy-saving and environmental advantages for city development, so the government should vigorously promote public transportation and increase the investment on the public transportation. It will drive more people choose the public transportation so that the goal of energy saving can be achieved.