CAJ | 학술논문

对1997～2012年中国分省域碳排放的数据进行详细测算，发现碳排放具有明显的空间相关性。利用空间面板数据模型分析发现，单位国内生产总值（GDP）能耗和能源结构碳强度对碳排放的影响较为突出。通过检验发现建立空间杜宾模型是最优的。结论：进一步加快产业结构优化升级，培育优势创新产业集群，推广清洁技术的利用，改善以煤炭为主不合理的一次能源消费结构，并充分考虑区域间的集聚效应，在碳减排活动中充分加强区域协作。
대1997～2012년중국분성역탄배방적수거진행상세측산，발현탄배방구유명현적공간상관성。이용공간면판수거모형분석발현，단위국내생산총치（GDP）능모화능원결구탄강도대탄배방적영향교위돌출。통과검험발현건립공간두빈모형시최우적。결론：진일보가쾌산업결구우화승급，배육우세창신산업집군，추엄청길기술적이용，개선이매탄위주불합리적일차능원소비결구，병충분고필구역간적집취효응，재탄감배활동중충분가강구역협작。
This paper analyzes the obvious spatial correlation among carbon emissions based on the calculation of provincial data of the emissions in China in the period 1997- 2012. We analyze the structural and technology factors using the Spatial Panel Data Model. Wald and LR test shows that spatial durbin model is the best to describe the data. The empirical evidence, consumption per GDP and the carbon intensity of the energy structure exert seriously influence on the emissions, which suggest that we have to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, develop the cluster effect of modem industries, promote the clean technology and change the ＂coal- based＂ energy structure. What＇s more, we have to pay attention to the spatial effects and strengthen the regional cooperation in the emission reducing works.