CAJ | 학술논문

出口企业之间的协调失灵是一国出口波动的原因之一,因此政府需要采取必要的干预措施.为了降低出口收入增长率的波动水平,可以借鉴Markowitz模型的方法,同时使用相对方差衡量波动风险并构建出口市场组合模型.根据该模型和2000-2012年的中国商品出口数据,可以计算中国商品出口市场的有效组合.研究结果表明：中国应该大幅度地增加对亚洲其他市场（亚洲15经济体以外的地区）、非洲和拉丁美洲的出口份额,并且,这种调整方向在理论上和实践上均具有可行性.
출구기업지간적협조실령시일국출구파동적원인지일,인차정부수요채취필요적간예조시.위료강저출구수입증장솔적파동수평,가이차감Markowitz모형적방법,동시사용상대방차형량파동풍험병구건출구시장조합모형.근거해모형화2000-2012년적중국상품출구수거,가이계산중국상품출구시장적유효조합.연구결과표명：중국응해대폭도지증가대아주기타시장（아주15경제체이외적지구）、비주화랍정미주적출구빈액,병차,저충조정방향재이론상화실천상균구유가행성.
Export fluctuations are partly the result of coordination failure, some government intervention may be necessary. By borrowing the modern portfolio theory for selecting optimal export markets mix and better measuring export risks, this paper argues that it is theoretically feasible to propose a new index named relative variance as an alternative to variance and construct a model of export markets mix. According to this model and the data on China＇ s export, we calculate the efficient mixes of China＇ s export markets, which indicate that China should increase exports share from the rest of Asia （ outside the 15 Asian economies）, Africa and Latin America. And this adjustment is feasible both in theory and practice.