商业研究
商業研究
상업연구
Commercial Research
2015年
6期
30~35
,共null页
产业结构变迁 烟(粉)尘和SO2排放 空间效应 动态空间杜宾面板模型
產業結構變遷 煙(粉)塵和SO2排放 空間效應 動態空間杜賓麵闆模型
산업결구변천 연(분)진화SO2배방 공간효응 동태공간두빈면판모형
industrial structure change; Soot (dust) and SO2 emissions; spatial effects; dynamic spatial Durbin panel model
基于环境库兹涅茨曲线分析框架,本文采用动态空间杜宾面板模型,分析环渤海经济圈产业结构高级化、合理化对烟(粉)尘和SO2两种大气污染物排放的影响。研究发现:各省份两种大气污染物排放存在显著空间相关性,产业结构高级化可以实现烟(粉)尘和SO2减排,但会增加其邻近省份的排放;产业结构合理化只能促进烟(粉)尘减排,并未产生显著空间溢出;烟(粉)尘排放与经济增长符合EKC假说,而SO2排放与经济增长呈U型曲线关系;大气污染治理投资能促进本省及其邻近省份的烟(粉)尘减排,而对SO2排放没有显著影响。因此,推进产业结构高级化和合理化是解决大气污染的有效途径,而如何实现区域内联防联控、如何避免“搭便车”、如何避免“污染转移”的产业结构调整是解决大气污染的关键。
基于環境庫玆涅茨麯線分析框架,本文採用動態空間杜賓麵闆模型,分析環渤海經濟圈產業結構高級化、閤理化對煙(粉)塵和SO2兩種大氣汙染物排放的影響。研究髮現:各省份兩種大氣汙染物排放存在顯著空間相關性,產業結構高級化可以實現煙(粉)塵和SO2減排,但會增加其鄰近省份的排放;產業結構閤理化隻能促進煙(粉)塵減排,併未產生顯著空間溢齣;煙(粉)塵排放與經濟增長符閤EKC假說,而SO2排放與經濟增長呈U型麯線關繫;大氣汙染治理投資能促進本省及其鄰近省份的煙(粉)塵減排,而對SO2排放沒有顯著影響。因此,推進產業結構高級化和閤理化是解決大氣汙染的有效途徑,而如何實現區域內聯防聯控、如何避免“搭便車”、如何避免“汙染轉移”的產業結構調整是解決大氣汙染的關鍵。
기우배경고자열자곡선분석광가,본문채용동태공간두빈면판모형,분석배발해경제권산업결구고급화、합이화대연(분)진화SO2량충대기오염물배방적영향。연구발현:각성빈량충대기오염물배방존재현저공간상관성,산업결구고급화가이실현연(분)진화SO2감배,단회증가기린근성빈적배방;산업결구합이화지능촉진연(분)진감배,병미산생현저공간일출;연(분)진배방여경제증장부합EKC가설,이SO2배방여경제증장정U형곡선관계;대기오염치리투자능촉진본성급기린근성빈적연(분)진감배,이대SO2배방몰유현저영향。인차,추진산업결구고급화화합이화시해결대기오염적유효도경,이여하실현구역내련방련공、여하피면“탑편차”、여하피면“오염전이”적산업결구조정시해결대기오염적관건。
Based on the environmental Kuznets curve, adopting dynamic spatial Durbin panel model, this paper analyzes the effects of rationalization and advancement of industrial structure on Bohai Rim Region's Soot (dust) and SO2 emis- sions. The results show that: there exits significant spatial dependence among each province's air pollution, and ad- vancement of industrial structure can promote the reduction of Soot (dust) and SO2 emissions in own province, while in- creasing emissions of neighboring provinces; rationalization of industrial structure can promote the Soot ( dust ) emis- sions, but it doesn't produce significant spatial spillover effects; the relationship between Soot (dust) and economic growth is consistent with the hypothesis of EKC, while it presents U - shape curve on SO2 ; antipollution investment in air will reduce the emissions of Soot (dust) in own province and neighboring provinces, while there's no significant influ- ence on SO2 emissions. So advancing the rationalization and advancement of industrial structure are effective ways to re- ducing air pollution, while how to realize regional linkage mechanism, how to avoid free rider, how to avoid the adjust- ment of industrial structure at the cost of pollution diversion are key problems to solve air pollution.