北京工商大学学报：社会科学版
北京工商大學學報：社會科學版
북경공상대학학보：사회과학판
JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY
2015年
3期
118~126
,共null页
老龄化 少子化 农村居民消费 空间面板模型
老齡化 少子化 農村居民消費 空間麵闆模型
노령화 소자화 농촌거민소비 공간면판모형
aging; low birth rate; rural residents＇consumption; spatial panel model
以中国农村居民作为研究对象,基于2000—2012年的省级面板数据,利用静态和动态空间面板模型,考察了＂老龄化＂和＂少子化＂对农村居民消费水平的影响。实证结果表明：＂老龄化＂和＂少子化＂均对农村居民消费水平产生了显著的正向影响,其中＂老龄化＂的影响更为强烈。＂老龄化＂对农村居民消费的正效应可以由农村的养老模式和老年人的健康状况来解释;＂少子化＂对农村居民消费有正效应的原因在于养育观念的改变以及养育成本的提高。要解决农村消费市场疲软的问题,必须从健全社会保障和提高生产力两方面入手。
以中國農村居民作為研究對象,基于2000—2012年的省級麵闆數據,利用靜態和動態空間麵闆模型,攷察瞭＂老齡化＂和＂少子化＂對農村居民消費水平的影響。實證結果錶明：＂老齡化＂和＂少子化＂均對農村居民消費水平產生瞭顯著的正嚮影響,其中＂老齡化＂的影響更為彊烈。＂老齡化＂對農村居民消費的正效應可以由農村的養老模式和老年人的健康狀況來解釋;＂少子化＂對農村居民消費有正效應的原因在于養育觀唸的改變以及養育成本的提高。要解決農村消費市場疲軟的問題,必鬚從健全社會保障和提高生產力兩方麵入手。
이중국농촌거민작위연구대상,기우2000—2012년적성급면판수거,이용정태화동태공간면판모형,고찰료＂노령화＂화＂소자화＂대농촌거민소비수평적영향。실증결과표명：＂노령화＂화＂소자화＂균대농촌거민소비수평산생료현저적정향영향,기중＂노령화＂적영향경위강렬。＂노령화＂대농촌거민소비적정효응가이유농촌적양로모식화노년인적건강상황래해석;＂소자화＂대농촌거민소비유정효응적원인재우양육관념적개변이급양육성본적제고。요해결농촌소비시장피연적문제,필수종건전사회보장화제고생산력량방면입수。
Based on provincial panel data in the yearsfrom 2000 to 2012, this paper explores the impact of population aging and low birth rate on the consumption of China＇s rural residents by constructing static and dynamic spatial panel models. It concludes that both aging and low birth rate have a positive and significant impact on rural residents＇ consumption, with the former an even stronger impact. As to the positive effect of agingupon rural residents＇ consumption, it can be explained by the pension system in rural regions and elderly people＇s health status. As to the positive effect of low birth rateupon rural residents＇ consumption, the reasons lie in the change ofehild-rearing conception and the increasing cost of raising children. To solve the problem of sluggish rural consumption, it is necessary to make all-around arrangements to improve both social welfare and productivity.
