CAJ | 학술논문

针对常规气井产量预测中因忽略气井工艺措施等其它因素影响而将其处理为干扰异常点,造成与气藏排水采气的开发策略不一致的技术难题,结合GM（1,1）模型与灾变模型,提出一种新的嵌套型GM（1,1）模型。该模型通过将气井工艺作为灾变因子,可以更准确地预测气井自然生产模型下的产量变化规律,有效弥补了常规预测法的不足。研究将新模型应用于川西气藏某生产气井单井产量预测,预测结果分别与GM（1,1）预测结果和Arps产量递减预测模型结果进行比较,结果显示新预测模型比GM（1,1）及产量递减预测模型的回归斜率和相关系数更接近1且回归截距更趋近于0,表明新方法的预测精度更加精确,能准确反映气田开发中的产量变化,不失为一种可选的新型产量预测方法。
침대상규기정산량예측중인홀략기정공예조시등기타인소영향이장기처리위간우이상점,조성여기장배수채기적개발책략불일치적기술난제,결합GM（1,1）모형여재변모형,제출일충신적감투형GM（1,1）모형。해모형통과장기정공예작위재변인자,가이경준학지예측기정자연생산모형하적산량변화규률,유효미보료상규예측법적불족。연구장신모형응용우천서기장모생산기정단정산량예측,예측결과분별여GM（1,1）예측결과화Arps산량체감예측모형결과진행비교,결과현시신예측모형비GM（1,1）급산량체감예측모형적회귀사솔화상관계수경접근1차회귀절거경추근우0,표명신방법적예측정도경가정학,능준학반영기전개발중적산량변화,불실위일충가선적신형산량예측방법。
Because of the ignorance of the influence of gas well process measures and other factors,which are usually treated as abnormal interference point,the conventional production prediction always varies from the development strategy of gas reservoir.In this paper,combining GM（1,1）model with catastrophe mode,a new nested type GM（1,1）model was proposed.This new model can predict more accurately the production history in natural production model by regarding gas well process measures as disaster factors.The new model is applied to gas reservoir in West Sichuan gas production prediction of a single well production.The results were compared to the results of GM（1,1）and prediction model of production decline.The results showed that SLOPE and correlation coefficient of new model were more closed to 1than the others and regression intercept of the new was more closed to 0,which indicated that prediction precision of new model is more accurate and can reflect changes of the production of gas field development precisely.