经济与管理评论
經濟與管理評論
경제여관리평론
Shandong Economy
2015年
3期
53~59
,共null页
隐含碳 碳关税 GTAP模型 政策模拟
隱含碳 碳關稅 GTAP模型 政策模擬
은함탄 탄관세 GTAP모형 정책모의
embodied carbon;carbon tariffs;GTAP model;policy simulation
在使用投入产出法测算出中国对美国出口各行业产品隐含碳排放量的基础上，运用GTAP模型对碳关税的政策效果进行情景模拟。研究结果表明，碳关税政策将对中国经济造成显著的负面冲击，使其高碳排放产品对美出口量下降，国际市场价格上升，GDP及社会福利减少，贸易条件恶化，国际竞争力减弱。为规避这些不利影响，建议尝试先行征收国内碳税，倒逼产业结构转型升级；合理降低外贸依存度，调整出口产业结构。
在使用投入產齣法測算齣中國對美國齣口各行業產品隱含碳排放量的基礎上，運用GTAP模型對碳關稅的政策效果進行情景模擬。研究結果錶明，碳關稅政策將對中國經濟造成顯著的負麵遲擊，使其高碳排放產品對美齣口量下降，國際市場價格上升，GDP及社會福利減少，貿易條件噁化，國際競爭力減弱。為規避這些不利影響，建議嘗試先行徵收國內碳稅，倒逼產業結構轉型升級；閤理降低外貿依存度，調整齣口產業結構。
재사용투입산출법측산출중국대미국출구각행업산품은함탄배방량적기출상，운용GTAP모형대탄관세적정책효과진행정경모의。연구결과표명，탄관세정책장대중국경제조성현저적부면충격，사기고탄배방산품대미출구량하강，국제시장개격상승，GDP급사회복리감소，무역조건악화，국제경쟁력감약。위규피저사불리영향，건의상시선행정수국내탄세，도핍산업결구전형승급；합리강저외무의존도，조정출구산업결구。
Based on the Input-Output Method,this paper first calculates the amount of embodied carbon implied by products across industries that are exported from China to the U. S. Then by applying the GTAP model,it simulates the policy effects of America’s car-bon tariffs. The results of the study show that Americaˊs imposition of carbon tariffs has significantly negative impact on China’s econo-my. As a consequence,it curbs China’s exports of high carbon-emitting goods,raises the international market price,decreasing Chi-na’s GDP and social welfare,deteriorating its trading conditions and weakening its international competitiveness. To avoid these ad-verse consequences,some effective policy suggestions are proposed,such as attempting to impose domestic carbon tax initially in Chi-na,force industrial restructuring and upgrading,reasonably reduce dependence on foreign trade,and adjust export industry structure.
