CAJ | 학술논문

货币政策是否应当反应及如何反应资产价格特别是房价波动，是一个颇具争议且结论莫衷一是的问题。本文在克服货币政策内生性和识别货币政策立场的基础上，并在开放条件下对此进行实证研究。结果表明，克服货币政策的内生性后，我国货币政策本身能够有效调控房价；央行在实际操作中也已对房价波动做出反应，而且货币政策对房价波动做出反应后，无论是紧缩还是宽松的货币政策对宏观经济和房价的调控效果更好；同时，有管理的人民币浮动汇率制度可以促进出口并拉动经济增长，且部分缓解了人民币升值压力，但货币供应的独立性会受到较大的影响，并助推了房价的过快上涨。本文的计量模型和估计方法减弱了货币政策的内生性，实证结果没有出现“价格之谜”，与理论更为贴近，与我国货币政策实践及宏观经济运行状况也相一致，因此结果更为可靠。最后提出了相应的政策建议。
화폐정책시부응당반응급여하반응자산개격특별시방개파동，시일개파구쟁의차결론막충일시적문제。본문재극복화폐정책내생성화식별화폐정책립장적기출상，병재개방조건하대차진행실증연구。결과표명，극복화폐정책적내생성후，아국화폐정책본신능구유효조공방개；앙행재실제조작중야이대방개파동주출반응，이차화폐정책대방개파동주출반응후，무론시긴축환시관송적화폐정책대굉관경제화방개적조공효과경호；동시，유관리적인민폐부동회솔제도가이촉진출구병랍동경제증장，차부분완해료인민폐승치압력，단화폐공응적독립성회수도교대적영향，병조추료방개적과쾌상창。본문적계량모형화고계방법감약료화폐정책적내생성，실증결과몰유출현“개격지미”，여이론경위첩근，여아국화폐정책실천급굉관경제운행상황야상일치，인차결과경위가고。최후제출료상응적정책건의。
Whether monetary policy should response to and how to react to the asset price especially the house price fluctuation is a controversial issue which doesn＇ t get a accordant conclusion. This paper makes an empirical study on this question on the basis of overcoming the endogenous monetary policy and recognition of monetary policy stance in the open environment. The result shows that the monetary policy itself can effectively control house prices after overcoming the endogenous monetary policy. The central bank has responded to the house price fluctuation in the actual operations, and that, both tight and ease monetary policy have better effect on macroeconomic and house price. Meanwhile, the managed floating exchange system can promote export, drive economic growth, and partly relieve RMB appreciation pressure, but it also has a great influence on the independence of monetary supply and helps boost the excessive price rises. The econometric models and estimation method in this paper weaken the endogenous monetary policy, and the empirical results, which are more close to the theory and do not show ＂price puzzle＂, would be more reliable and consistent with the monetary practice c situation. In the end, this paper raises some appropriate policy proposals concerning to the research results.