CAJ | 학술논문

贸易便利化水平预示着地区贸易发展的方向与潜力。本文基于多因素的分析视角,利用系统动力学逻辑构建了新疆边境贸易便利化趋势仿真的分析框架。在这一框架下,新疆边境贸易便利化的发展是由各子系统驱动形成的变化过程。总体来看,各子系统组合作用下新疆边境贸易便利化水平上升趋势十分显著,到2032年水平提升接近70%。具体来看,各子系统单独作用下新疆边境贸易便利化发展趋势存在差异,其中服务部门子系统、政策环境子系统作用下上升趋势较显著,而边贸企业子系统、监管部门子系统、相对国贸易便利化子系统作用下上升水平较低。
무역편리화수평예시착지구무역발전적방향여잠력。본문기우다인소적분석시각,이용계통동역학라집구건료신강변경무역편리화추세방진적분석광가。재저일광가하,신강변경무역편리화적발전시유각자계통구동형성적변화과정。총체래간,각자계통조합작용하신강변경무역편리화수평상승추세십분현저,도2032년수평제승접근70%。구체래간,각자계통단독작용하신강변경무역편리화발전추세존재차이,기중복무부문자계통、정책배경자계통작용하상승추세교현저,이변무기업자계통、감관부문자계통、상대국무역편리화자계통작용하상승수평교저。
Trade facilitation level indicates the direction and potential of regional trade development. This arti- cle based on the perspective of multi - factor analysis ~ using system dynamics logic to build frame about the Xinjiang border trade facilitations tendency simulation. With this framework, Xinjiang border trade facilitation is a changing process drove by each subsystem. Overall, under the combination of each subsystem, the level of Xinjiang border trade facilitation will promote to 70% by 2032, show a notable uptrend. In detail, under the separately action of each subsystem, the development tendency of Xinjiang border trade facilitation exists some differences. Under serv- ice department subsystem and policy environment subsystem, there is a significant increasing trend, while under border trade enterprises subsystem ,supervision department subsystem and the trade facilitation of other country sub- system, the uptrend shows a low level.