财经研究
財經研究
재경연구
The Study of Finance and Economics
2015年
4期
18~30
,共null页
农民工市民化 动态CGE模型 红利效应 经济增长
農民工市民化 動態CGE模型 紅利效應 經濟增長
농민공시민화 동태CGE모형 홍리효응 경제증장
citizenization of rural migrant workers; dynamic CGE model; dividendeffect; economic growth
文章基于可计算一般均衡模型（CHINAGEM）并考虑了农民工市民化的＂职业依赖＂特征,在多元劳动力转移矩阵中引入了农民工和城市非熟练劳动力的流动机制,设置了分阶段农民工市民化模拟场景,运用实际与拟合数据评估其动态经济效应。结果表明：城市非熟练劳动力和农民工＂替代效应＂引致的劳动力市场供给结构的变化,直接改善了劳动力供给的质量,并通过不同技能劳动力相对工资的变动促进了城市非熟练劳动力向熟练劳动力的升级,实现了整个就业市场的结构优化;在供给方面,劳动力市场的变化带动了不同行业的资本存量积累,从而推动了产业结构向制造业和服务业的转型;在需求方面,国民收入的改善促进了长期消费增长,而劳动力要素成本的整体下降则提升了出口规模。因此,农民工的市民化给中国经济增长带来了长期的红利。
文章基于可計算一般均衡模型（CHINAGEM）併攷慮瞭農民工市民化的＂職業依賴＂特徵,在多元勞動力轉移矩陣中引入瞭農民工和城市非熟練勞動力的流動機製,設置瞭分階段農民工市民化模擬場景,運用實際與擬閤數據評估其動態經濟效應。結果錶明：城市非熟練勞動力和農民工＂替代效應＂引緻的勞動力市場供給結構的變化,直接改善瞭勞動力供給的質量,併通過不同技能勞動力相對工資的變動促進瞭城市非熟練勞動力嚮熟練勞動力的升級,實現瞭整箇就業市場的結構優化;在供給方麵,勞動力市場的變化帶動瞭不同行業的資本存量積纍,從而推動瞭產業結構嚮製造業和服務業的轉型;在需求方麵,國民收入的改善促進瞭長期消費增長,而勞動力要素成本的整體下降則提升瞭齣口規模。因此,農民工的市民化給中國經濟增長帶來瞭長期的紅利。
문장기우가계산일반균형모형（CHINAGEM）병고필료농민공시민화적＂직업의뢰＂특정,재다원노동력전이구진중인입료농민공화성시비숙련노동력적류동궤제,설치료분계단농민공시민화모의장경,운용실제여의합수거평고기동태경제효응。결과표명：성시비숙련노동력화농민공＂체대효응＂인치적노동력시장공급결구적변화,직접개선료노동력공급적질량,병통과불동기능노동력상대공자적변동촉진료성시비숙련노동력향숙련노동력적승급,실현료정개취업시장적결구우화;재공급방면,노동력시장적변화대동료불동행업적자본존량적루,종이추동료산업결구향제조업화복무업적전형;재수구방면,국민수입적개선촉진료장기소비증장,이노동력요소성본적정체하강칙제승료출구규모。인차,농민공적시민화급중국경제증장대래료장기적홍리。
Based on the computable general equilibrium model and taking the career dependence feature of citizenization of rural migrant workers into account,this paper introduces the labor transfer mechanism between rural migrant workers and urban unskilled labor into diverse labor transfer matrix,and establishes the simulation scenarios at different stages to evaluate the dynamic economic effect of citizenization of rural migrant workers by real and fitting data.The results indicate that the changes in the structure of labor supply created by the substitution effect between urban unskilled labor and rural migrant workers lead to direct improvement of the quality of labor supply and promote the upgrading of urban unskilled labor to skilled labor by changes in relative wages of labor with different skills,thereby realizing the structure optimization of total employment market.As for supply,the change in the labor market results in the capital stock accumulation in different industries,thereby promoting the transformation of industrial structure to manufacturing and services sectors;as for demand,the improvement of national income advances longterm consumption growth and the whole decrease in labor factor costs gives rise to the increase in export scale.All in all,the citizenization of rural migrant workers brings long-term dividend effect to economic growth in China.
