CAJ | 학술논문

本文在EKC、IPAT和STIRPAT模型的基础上，将来自50个国家近30年的数据分为四组，先后把经济增长、产业结构、节能减排技术以及能源结构因素作为控制变量纳入实证模型，观察它们对人均碳排放和人均能耗拐点带来的影响。实证结果显示，不同的组别对应的拐点具有明显差异，但是各组的人均能耗拐点都迟于人均碳排放拐点。将人口、经济增长、碳强度以及能源消费比例四个指标的不同预测值进行排列组合构建16种情景，对中国的人均碳排放拐点和人均能耗拐点进行预测。结果表明，只要按照这四个指标的预测值控制好人口和经济增长速度，并积极降低碳强度和煤炭消费占比，人均碳排放拐点和碳排放总量拐点在2030年之前出现的可能性较大。
본문재EKC、IPAT화STIRPAT모형적기출상，장래자50개국가근30년적수거분위사조，선후파경제증장、산업결구、절능감배기술이급능원결구인소작위공제변량납입실증모형，관찰타문대인균탄배방화인균능모괴점대래적영향。실증결과현시，불동적조별대응적괴점구유명현차이，단시각조적인균능모괴점도지우인균탄배방괴점。장인구、경제증장、탄강도이급능원소비비례사개지표적불동예측치진행배렬조합구건16충정경，대중국적인균탄배방괴점화인균능모괴점진행예측。결과표명，지요안조저사개지표적예측치공제호인구화경제증장속도，병적겁강저탄강도화매탄소비점비，인균탄배방괴점화탄배방총량괴점재2030년지전출현적가능성교대。
Based on EKC, IPAT and STIRPAT models, this paper divides the data from 50 countries of nearly 30 years into four groups, and then puts the factors of economic growth, industrial structure, energy saving and carbon emis- sion reduction technology and energy structure as independent variables into the empirical model, in order to observe the effects on energy consumption of car- bon emissions per capita and human inflection point. The results show that as long as the population and economic growth are controlled according to the four forecasting values, and carbon intensity and coal consumption ratio are actively re- duced, it is possible that the turning point of the carbon emissions per capita and total carbon emissions emerges before 2030.