系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2015年
6期
1625~1632
,共null页
张先起 张宏洋 李亚敏 孙东坡
張先起 張宏洋 李亞敏 孫東坡
장선기 장굉양 리아민 손동파
黄河下游 滩区 洪水 淹没损失 损失评估
黃河下遊 灘區 洪水 淹沒損失 損失評估
황하하유 탄구 홍수 엄몰손실 손실평고
the lower Yellow River;floodplain;flood;inundate;loss assessment
黄河下游河道泥沙沉积导致洪水漫滩频繁,严重影响滩区的安全,进行漫滩洪水淹没损失评估可为滩区防洪减灾提供依据.通过对黄河下游滩区洪水淹没损失调查与统计分析,利用回归分析提出了黄河下游滩区玉米、大豆、花生、林地与房屋等洪水淹没水深与淹没损失的关系函数,构建了黄河下游滩区洪水淹没损失评估体系.在对黄河下游东坝头一高村段滩区"82.8"洪水过程概化的基础上,基于构建的数字地形与地理属性信息数据库,对8000m~3/s、14000m~3/s量级洪水滩区演进进行了模拟与淹没影响预测,提出了滩区洪水淹没损失率分布图.结果表明滩区农林作物与房屋等淹没损失在同一淹没历时的情况下,随洪峰流量、淹没水深的增大而增大;淹没损失一般在洪峰时刻最大,低秆作物的淹没损失比高秆作物的大.
黃河下遊河道泥沙沉積導緻洪水漫灘頻繁,嚴重影響灘區的安全,進行漫灘洪水淹沒損失評估可為灘區防洪減災提供依據.通過對黃河下遊灘區洪水淹沒損失調查與統計分析,利用迴歸分析提齣瞭黃河下遊灘區玉米、大豆、花生、林地與房屋等洪水淹沒水深與淹沒損失的關繫函數,構建瞭黃河下遊灘區洪水淹沒損失評估體繫.在對黃河下遊東壩頭一高村段灘區"82.8"洪水過程概化的基礎上,基于構建的數字地形與地理屬性信息數據庫,對8000m~3/s、14000m~3/s量級洪水灘區縯進進行瞭模擬與淹沒影響預測,提齣瞭灘區洪水淹沒損失率分佈圖.結果錶明灘區農林作物與房屋等淹沒損失在同一淹沒歷時的情況下,隨洪峰流量、淹沒水深的增大而增大;淹沒損失一般在洪峰時刻最大,低稈作物的淹沒損失比高稈作物的大.
황하하유하도니사침적도치홍수만탄빈번,엄중영향탄구적안전,진행만탄홍수엄몰손실평고가위탄구방홍감재제공의거.통과대황하하유탄구홍수엄몰손실조사여통계분석,이용회귀분석제출료황하하유탄구옥미、대두、화생、임지여방옥등홍수엄몰수심여엄몰손실적관계함수,구건료황하하유탄구홍수엄몰손실평고체계.재대황하하유동패두일고촌단탄구"82.8"홍수과정개화적기출상,기우구건적수자지형여지리속성신식수거고,대8000m~3/s、14000m~3/s량급홍수탄구연진진행료모의여엄몰영향예측,제출료탄구홍수엄몰손실솔분포도.결과표명탄구농림작물여방옥등엄몰손실재동일엄몰력시적정황하,수홍봉류량、엄몰수심적증대이증대;엄몰손실일반재홍봉시각최대,저간작물적엄몰손실비고간작물적대.
Frequent flood caused by river sediment bring a large threat to floodplain safety of the lower Yellow River,conducting loss assessment of floodplain flood can provide the basis for flood control and mitigation.Through surveying floodplain flood damage and statistical analysis of the lower Yellow River,by the way of regression analysis,the relation functions between submergence depth and submerged loss of corn,soybeans,peanuts,woodland and housing are proposed,and a new inundation loss assessment system is built on floodplain of the lower Yellow River.In the basis of the "82.8" flood generalization of the Dongbatou~Gaocun floodplain in the lower Yellow River,based on digital terrain and geographic attribute information database,the flood evolution process of the magnitude 8000m~3/s and 14000m~3/s axe simulated,flood impact areas are analyzed and predicted,distribution figures of floodplain flood loss rate are proposed in the lower Yellow River.The study results show that floodplain agriculture crop,woodland and housing losses increase with the peak flow and submerged depth in the same submerged time lasted,and losses are generally the greatest in the peak moments,loss of the low crops is larger than the stalk crops.