CAJ | 학술논문

在缺少全球性协议的背景下．一些发达国家一直试图在对包含中国在内的发展中国家征收碳关税，碳关税对我国的影响究竞如何？尽管目前许多研究对此问题进行了探讨。但所得结果差异较大。为探究原因，文章采用多区域CGE模型，从不确定性视角出发，研究了发达国家碳关税征收对我国经济的影响。模拟结果揭示，不确定性因素在碳关税影响评估中起着十分重要的作用．是造成当前研究结果呈现不一致的主要原因。碳关税的行业覆盖范围和商品隐含碳核算方式选取对评估结果影响较大。本文发现，若考虑发达国家国内减排措施．碳关税征收对我国经济的负面影响将会有所减小，甚至在一定情况下。某些指标出现方向性改变。本研究有助于准确把握发达国家碳关税征收对我国经济的潜在影响，相关结果有利于决策者制定合理的应对措施。
재결소전구성협의적배경하．일사발체국가일직시도재대포함중국재내적발전중국가정수탄관세，탄관세대아국적영향구경여하？진관목전허다연구대차문제진행료탐토。단소득결과차이교대。위탐구원인，문장채용다구역CGE모형，종불학정성시각출발，연구료발체국가탄관세정수대아국경제적영향。모의결과게시，불학정성인소재탄관세영향평고중기착십분중요적작용．시조성당전연구결과정현불일치적주요원인。탄관세적행업복개범위화상품은함탄핵산방식선취대평고결과영향교대。본문발현，약고필발체국가국내감배조시．탄관세정수대아국경제적부면영향장회유소감소，심지재일정정황하。모사지표출현방향성개변。본연구유조우준학파악발체국가탄관세정수대아국경제적잠재영향，상관결과유리우결책자제정합리적응대조시。
In the case of no international environmental agreements, some developed countries are trying to impose carbon tariffs on the import from the developing parities. What＇s the impact of carbon tariffs on China＇s economy？ Although many scholars have contributed to the issue, their results vary differently. This paper focuses on the impact of carbon tariffs imposed by developed countries on China＇s economy with a multi-region CGE model from the perspective of uncertainties. The results show that the uncertainties play an important role in the evaluation, which is also the important reason for different simulation results from different researches. In particular, the sectorial converge of carbon tariffs and the accounting method for estimating carbons embodied in the final product are the two crucial uncertainties, which may affect the results significantly. This paper also finds that the carbon-pricing policies in developed countries may alleviate the negative effect of carbon tariffs on China＇s economy, and especially in some cases the indexes will change their signals. The study will be useful for obtaining an accurate evaluation of carbon tariffs.