人口学刊
人口學刊
인구학간
Population Journal
2015年
4期
48~54
,共null页
人口城市化 产业结构 动态机制 吉林省
人口城市化 產業結構 動態機製 吉林省
인구성시화 산업결구 동태궤제 길림성
Urbanization, Industrial Structure, the Dynamic Mechanism, Jilin Province
为了探讨吉林省人口城市化与产业结构演进之间的互动关系,本文采用1952~2013年的时间序列数据,借助协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型对二者之间的关系进行动态计量分析。结果表明:吉林省人口城市化与产业结构演进之间存在长期均衡关系,短期内具有反向的误差修正机制;产业结构对人口城市化影响的短期弹性小于长期弹性,第三产业对人口城市化的推动作用强于第二产业;第二、三产业发展是人口城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因,人口城市化对第三产业的带动作用要强于对第二产业。
為瞭探討吉林省人口城市化與產業結構縯進之間的互動關繫,本文採用1952~2013年的時間序列數據,藉助協整檢驗、格蘭傑因果檢驗和誤差脩正模型對二者之間的關繫進行動態計量分析。結果錶明:吉林省人口城市化與產業結構縯進之間存在長期均衡關繫,短期內具有反嚮的誤差脩正機製;產業結構對人口城市化影響的短期彈性小于長期彈性,第三產業對人口城市化的推動作用彊于第二產業;第二、三產業髮展是人口城市化水平提高的格蘭傑原因,人口城市化對第三產業的帶動作用要彊于對第二產業。
위료탐토길림성인구성시화여산업결구연진지간적호동관계,본문채용1952~2013년적시간서렬수거,차조협정검험、격란걸인과검험화오차수정모형대이자지간적관계진행동태계량분석。결과표명:길림성인구성시화여산업결구연진지간존재장기균형관계,단기내구유반향적오차수정궤제;산업결구대인구성시화영향적단기탄성소우장기탄성,제삼산업대인구성시화적추동작용강우제이산업;제이、삼산업발전시인구성시화수평제고적격란걸원인,인구성시화대제삼산업적대동작용요강우대제이산업。
To investigate the interaction between population urbanization and industrial structure evolution of Jilin province, this article adopts the time series data of 1952-2013, using co-integration test, and grang- er causality test and error correction model on the relationship between the dynamic econometric analyses. The results showed that: Jilin province population urbanization and industrial structure evolution, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the short term has the reverse error correction mechanism;The influence of industrial structure of population urbanization short-term elasticity is less than the elasticity for a long time, the third industry to the promoting function of population urbanization is better than the sec- ond industry; The second and third industry development is the granger reason of population urbanization, population urbanization driving effect against the third than the second industry.