人口学刊
人口學刊
인구학간
Population Journal
2015年
4期
77~85
,共null页
老年人 婚姻状况 六普 队列分析
老年人 婚姻狀況 六普 隊列分析
노년인 혼인상황 륙보 대렬분석
Older People, Marital Status, China' s Sixth National Population Census, Cohort Analysis
本文基于2010年第六次全国人口普查数据,并结合第四次、第五次人口普查数据,对我国老年人的婚姻状况及变化趋势进行分析。发现二十年来我国老年人有配偶的比例明显提高,丧偶率下降,但丧偶老年人数量迅速增长,未婚和离婚的老年人比例都有所上升。与男性老年人相比,女性老年人有配偶的比例随年龄增长下降幅度更大。老年人婚姻状况的城乡差异和地区差异明显,农村男性老年人的未婚趋势和城市老年人的离婚趋势尤为突出。通过队列分析发现女性从60岁迈向70岁过程中面临的丧偶风险最大,男性65岁以上年龄组面临的丧偶风险最大。
本文基于2010年第六次全國人口普查數據,併結閤第四次、第五次人口普查數據,對我國老年人的婚姻狀況及變化趨勢進行分析。髮現二十年來我國老年人有配偶的比例明顯提高,喪偶率下降,但喪偶老年人數量迅速增長,未婚和離婚的老年人比例都有所上升。與男性老年人相比,女性老年人有配偶的比例隨年齡增長下降幅度更大。老年人婚姻狀況的城鄉差異和地區差異明顯,農村男性老年人的未婚趨勢和城市老年人的離婚趨勢尤為突齣。通過隊列分析髮現女性從60歲邁嚮70歲過程中麵臨的喪偶風險最大,男性65歲以上年齡組麵臨的喪偶風險最大。
본문기우2010년제륙차전국인구보사수거,병결합제사차、제오차인구보사수거,대아국노년인적혼인상황급변화추세진행분석。발현이십년래아국노년인유배우적비례명현제고,상우솔하강,단상우노년인수량신속증장,미혼화리혼적노년인비례도유소상승。여남성노년인상비,녀성노년인유배우적비례수년령증장하강폭도경대。노년인혼인상황적성향차이화지구차이명현,농촌남성노년인적미혼추세화성시노년인적리혼추세우위돌출。통과대렬분석발현녀성종60세매향70세과정중면림적상우풍험최대,남성65세이상년령조면림적상우풍험최대。
This paper analyses the marital status and its change trends based on the 6^th, 5^th and 4^th Censuses of China. The results show that the proportion of the elderly with spouse increased significantly and the per- centage of widowed elderly decreased since 1990. However, the number of widowed elderly increased prom- inently and the shares of unmarried and divorced elderly improved within the 20 years. Compared with that of the male elderly, the proportion of female elderly with spouse declined much sharply with the advance of age. The differences of marital status were great between rural and urban elderly. Unmarried trend among rural male elderly and divorced trend among urban elderly were particularly prominent. The results through cohort analysis indicate that the biggest risk of losing spouse for female elderly was found to be happened from the age of 60 to 70,while the risk for male elderly will increase distinctly later than the age of 65.