CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据新疆1978年—2013年的统计数据,通过构建VAR协整模型以及VEC模型对新疆对外贸易、经济增长以及投资三个变量进行动态分析。结果表明：从长期来看,新疆对外贸易和投资与经济增长之间具有唯一协整关系;而经济增长与对外贸易和投资存在单向因果关系。从短期来看,对外贸易和投资是经济增长的引擎,特别是对外贸易无论在近期还是远期都对新疆经济的快速增长有着巨大的推动作用。因此,当前应将政策的着力点放在优化投资方向、调整产业结构和出口商品结构、发展边境贸易、建立与周边国家互联互通机制等方面,以促进新疆对外贸易的发展,发挥新疆作为丝绸之路经济带核心区的作用。
본문근거신강1978년—2013년적통계수거,통과구건VAR협정모형이급VEC모형대신강대외무역、경제증장이급투자삼개변량진행동태분석。결과표명：종장기래간,신강대외무역화투자여경제증장지간구유유일협정관계;이경제증장여대외무역화투자존재단향인과관계。종단기래간,대외무역화투자시경제증장적인경,특별시대외무역무론재근기환시원기도대신강경제적쾌속증장유착거대적추동작용。인차,당전응장정책적착력점방재우화투자방향、조정산업결구화출구상품결구、발전변경무역、건립여주변국가호련호통궤제등방면,이촉진신강대외무역적발전,발휘신강작위사주지로경제대핵심구적작용。
According to the data from 1978 to 2013 in Xinjiang,by introducing investment variables and constructing VAR co-integration model and VEC model,the paper makes a dynamic analysis of three variables,that is,foreign trade,economic growth and investment The results showed that： in the long run,there is a unique co-integrating relationship among foreign trade,investment and economic growth in Xinjiang. There is a causal relationship between economic growth and foreign trade,individual investments. In short-term,foreign trade and investment are engines of economic growth. In the short-and long-term,foreign trade has a great role in promoting rapid economic growth in Xinjiang. Therefore,it is of great importance to guarantee both the quality and quantity of the trade products and the focus of current policy should be placed on optimizing the investment environment,adjust the industrial structure,improve the additional value of the product and play the core role of Xinjiang as the economic core zone on the Silk Road to promote the corresponding policy to develop foreign trade in Xinjiang.