电子科技大学学报：社会科学版
電子科技大學學報：社會科學版
전자과기대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（Social Sciences Edition）
2015年
3期
24~28
,共null页
输油管道泄漏 公共安全事件 事件树 事故树 演化
輸油管道洩漏 公共安全事件 事件樹 事故樹 縯化
수유관도설루 공공안전사건 사건수 사고수 연화
oil pipeline leakage; public safety incident; event tree analysis; fault tree analysis; evolution
目前城市输油管道泄漏事故频发,青岛＂11.22＂中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故发人深省。结合该事故的调研结果,运用事件树和事故树分析方法对输油管道泄漏导致公共安全事件的演化过程、路径与发生概率进行分析。研究结果表明：输油管道泄漏不管燃爆与否导致环境污染的概率最高;燃爆概率远低于不发生燃爆概率;由于不发生燃爆而导致环境污染引起的社会骚乱概率最高;＂11.22＂事故是沿着最高发生概率事件路径演化的,是可以预料的事故。
目前城市輸油管道洩漏事故頻髮,青島＂11.22＂中石化東黃輸油管道洩漏爆炸事故髮人深省。結閤該事故的調研結果,運用事件樹和事故樹分析方法對輸油管道洩漏導緻公共安全事件的縯化過程、路徑與髮生概率進行分析。研究結果錶明：輸油管道洩漏不管燃爆與否導緻環境汙染的概率最高;燃爆概率遠低于不髮生燃爆概率;由于不髮生燃爆而導緻環境汙染引起的社會騷亂概率最高;＂11.22＂事故是沿著最高髮生概率事件路徑縯化的,是可以預料的事故。
목전성시수유관도설루사고빈발,청도＂11.22＂중석화동황수유관도설루폭작사고발인심성。결합해사고적조연결과,운용사건수화사고수분석방법대수유관도설루도치공공안전사건적연화과정、로경여발생개솔진행분석。연구결과표명：수유관도설루불관연폭여부도치배경오염적개솔최고;연폭개솔원저우불발생연폭개솔;유우불발생연폭이도치배경오염인기적사회소란개솔최고;＂11.22＂사고시연착최고발생개솔사건로경연화적,시가이예료적사고。
At present, the city pipeline leakage accidents occur frequently, and Qingdao ＂11.22＂ Sinopec Dong Huang oil pipeline explosion accident is thought-provoking. Combined with the research results of the accident, the article uses the Event Tree and Fault Tree to analyze the evolution process and path and probability of the pipeline leak public safety incident. The results show that： whether the explosion happens or not, the probability of environment pollution is the highest caused by the oil pipeline leakage; the probability of explosion is much lower than the probability of non-explosion; the probability of social unrest caused by the environment pollution without explosion is the highest; the evolution of＂11.22＂ accident is along the occurrence of the highest probability accident, not an incalculable accident.
