CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国集中供暖线和Moran I指数图将我国省域划分成南、北两个区域,通过建立空间计量模型,对影响生活消费的人均碳排放量影响因素及影响大小进行定量分析。同时根据Kaya恒等式及现有文献将驱动因素分解成能源结构、能源利用率、居民生活水平三个因素,外加可能对碳排放有影响区域人口密度。结果表明：能源结构和居民生活水平分别是影响南北方地区生活碳排放的主要因素。南方地区的空间效应显著而北方不显著,所以优化居民能源消费结构,采取地区空间联动性的合作治理对减少南方地区生活消费人均碳排放量具有十分重要的作用。而对于北方地区则应把政策重心放在协调居民生活水平和人均碳排放量上,优化地区环境库兹涅茨曲线。
기우중국집중공난선화Moran I지수도장아국성역화분성남、북량개구역,통과건립공간계량모형,대영향생활소비적인균탄배방량영향인소급영향대소진행정량분석。동시근거Kaya항등식급현유문헌장구동인소분해성능원결구、능원이용솔、거민생활수평삼개인소,외가가능대탄배방유영향구역인구밀도。결과표명：능원결구화거민생활수평분별시영향남북방지구생활탄배방적주요인소。남방지구적공간효응현저이북방불현저,소이우화거민능원소비결구,채취지구공간련동성적합작치리대감소남방지구생활소비인균탄배방량구유십분중요적작용。이대우북방지구칙응파정책중심방재협조거민생활수평화인균탄배방량상,우화지구배경고자열자곡선。
Based on the heating wire concentrated in China and Moran I index, China＇s provincial map will be divided into North and south areas, through the establishment of spatial econometric models, the paper quantitatively analyzes the influence on living consumption per capita carbon emission effects and the size of the influencing factors. At the same time, according to the Kaya identity, the existing literature, the paper divides the driving factor into three groups： the energy structure, energy utilization ratio, and the living standards of residents. And the regional population density may have effects on carbon emissions as well. The results show that： the energy structure and the living standards of residents are main factors affecting the life of the South and the north area of carbon emissions. So the optimization of residents consumption structure of energy, and adopting the cooperation governance area spatial linkage play a very important role in reducing the south area of life consumption per capita carbon emissions. And for the north area we should take the policy to focus on the coordination of the living standards of residents and the per capita emissions, and optimizing the regional environmental Kuznets curve.