CAJ | 학술논문

伴随着经济增长的步伐,我国城镇化进程逐步推进。文章基于《中国统计年鉴》1949~2011年城镇化率数据,依据Logistic模型推演出中国城镇化率的非线性拟合曲线,进而对中国城镇化进程进行预测。Logistic模型分析表明,曲线拟合优度高,中国城镇化进程可以分为四个阶段：孕育阶段（1982年前,期末的城镇化率达21%）、成长阶段（1982~2010年,期末的城镇化率达50%）、成熟阶段（2010~2050年,期末的城镇化率达78.9%）、衰退阶段（2050年后,期末城镇化率达到极值100%）,这种阶段划分与2011年以前的中国社会经济发展现状基本吻合,同时可以为我国新型城镇化过程中进行阶段性合理布局、制订相应发展战略提供理论依据。
반수착경제증장적보벌,아국성진화진정축보추진。문장기우《중국통계년감》1949~2011년성진화솔수거,의거Logistic모형추연출중국성진화솔적비선성의합곡선,진이대중국성진화진정진행예측。Logistic모형분석표명,곡선의합우도고,중국성진화진정가이분위사개계단：잉육계단（1982년전,기말적성진화솔체21%）、성장계단（1982~2010년,기말적성진화솔체50%）、성숙계단（2010~2050년,기말적성진화솔체78.9%）、쇠퇴계단（2050년후,기말성진화솔체도겁치100%）,저충계단화분여2011년이전적중국사회경제발전현상기본문합,동시가이위아국신형성진화과정중진행계단성합리포국、제정상응발전전략제공이론의거。
With the pace of economic growth, the process of urbanization in china is gradually pushed forward. In this paper, based on the ＂China Statistical Yearbook＂ 1949-2011 years urbanization rate data, according to the nonlinear curve fitting of Logistic model to deduce the China urbanization rate, we forecast the China urbanization process. The analysis of Logistic model, curve fitting degree is high, China urbanization process can be divided into four stages： incubation period （before 1982, the urbanization rate of 21%）, the growth period （1982-2010 years, the urbanization rate of 50%）, the mature period （2010-2050 years, the urbanization rate 78.9%）, decline period （after 2050, the urbanization rate reached maximum, 100%）. The current situation of the development of social economy Chinese matches this stage before 2011. Basically, the results can provide theoretical basis for formulating corresponding development strategy in the new type of urbanization in China during the process of a rational layout.