生态经济
生態經濟
생태경제
Ecological Economy
2015年
7期
85~90
,共null页
邱丽娟 杨倩 林爱文 李兴正 李海江 嵇莹
邱麗娟 楊倩 林愛文 李興正 李海江 嵇瑩
구려연 양천 림애문 리흥정 리해강 혜형
耕地 生态承压能力 时空演变 湖北省
耕地 生態承壓能力 時空縯變 湖北省
경지 생태승압능력 시공연변 호북성
cultivated land; ecological carrying capacity; spatial-temporal dynamics; Hubei Province
采用生态足迹模型结合ESDA分析法,以县域为基本尺度,对湖北省2003~2012年间耕地生态承压能力的时空演变特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）研究期内,湖北省人均耕地生态足迹呈上升趋势,耕地承压能力下降,耕地利用总体呈不可持续状态;（2）空间分布上,各县市耕地承压能力差异明显,总体呈现＂西高中东低＂的格局,县市数量上呈＂不可持续〉弱可持续〉可持续〉强可持续＂的＂金字塔型＂结构;（3）空间关联上,湖北省耕地生态承压能力存在显著的正的空间自相关;HH型集中分布在鄂西且布局稳定;LL型主要分布在鄂中及鄂东,呈＂中部扩大,东部缩小＂的趋势;HL型分布较分散,且有增多和东移的趋势,东部地区耕地承压能力出现了极化趋势。中低产田改造及种植结构调整是增强耕地可持续利用的有效途径。
採用生態足跡模型結閤ESDA分析法,以縣域為基本呎度,對湖北省2003~2012年間耕地生態承壓能力的時空縯變特徵進行瞭分析。結果錶明：（1）研究期內,湖北省人均耕地生態足跡呈上升趨勢,耕地承壓能力下降,耕地利用總體呈不可持續狀態;（2）空間分佈上,各縣市耕地承壓能力差異明顯,總體呈現＂西高中東低＂的格跼,縣市數量上呈＂不可持續〉弱可持續〉可持續〉彊可持續＂的＂金字塔型＂結構;（3）空間關聯上,湖北省耕地生態承壓能力存在顯著的正的空間自相關;HH型集中分佈在鄂西且佈跼穩定;LL型主要分佈在鄂中及鄂東,呈＂中部擴大,東部縮小＂的趨勢;HL型分佈較分散,且有增多和東移的趨勢,東部地區耕地承壓能力齣現瞭極化趨勢。中低產田改造及種植結構調整是增彊耕地可持續利用的有效途徑。
채용생태족적모형결합ESDA분석법,이현역위기본척도,대호북성2003~2012년간경지생태승압능력적시공연변특정진행료분석。결과표명：（1）연구기내,호북성인균경지생태족적정상승추세,경지승압능력하강,경지이용총체정불가지속상태;（2）공간분포상,각현시경지승압능력차이명현,총체정현＂서고중동저＂적격국,현시수량상정＂불가지속〉약가지속〉가지속〉강가지속＂적＂금자탑형＂결구;（3）공간관련상,호북성경지생태승압능력존재현저적정적공간자상관;HH형집중분포재악서차포국은정;LL형주요분포재악중급악동,정＂중부확대,동부축소＂적추세;HL형분포교분산,차유증다화동이적추세,동부지구경지승압능력출현료겁화추세。중저산전개조급충식결구조정시증강경지가지속이용적유효도경。
Based on ecological footprint model and ESDA, this paper conducted an analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity from 2003 to 2012 at county level. The results show that： （1）In the 10-year period, the ecological footprint per capita of cultivated land has been increasing, and the ecological carrying capacity presents a downward trend, which means that the use of cultivated land in Hubei is in unsustainable state as a whole. （2）As to the spatial distribution, the spatial variance of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity is significant, presenting a pattern of＂High in the west, Low in the middle and east＂. The number of counties on the ranks of ecological carrying capacity from unsustainable to relatively strong sustainable gradually decreases, in a ＂pyramid＂ manner. （3）With respect to spatial autocorrelation, high positive spatial autocorrelation is detected on the distribution of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity. H-H counties obviously concentrate in the west steadily. L-L counties are mainly distributed in the middle and east of Hubei. The area of L-L type in the middle continues to expand, while in the east performs the opposite way. The distribution of H-L counties is scattered and its location is moving toward east indicating that the polarization trend of ecological carrying capacity in the east has occurred. The improvement of middle-low yielded cultivated land and the adjustment of plantation structure are the effective ways to strengthen the sustainable development of cultivated land.
