财经科学
財經科學
재경과학
Finance and Economics
2015年
7期
39~49
,共null页
新常态 经济加速 经济减缓 增长质量
新常態 經濟加速 經濟減緩 增長質量
신상태 경제가속 경제감완 증장질량
New Normal; Economic Acceleration; Economic Slowdown; Economic Growth Quality
本文通过借助艾肯格林设定经济增长减缓和加速需要满足的条件，考察新中国成立后我国经济增长趋势性特征。通过本文的研究发现：第一，新中国成立后，我国经济经过阶段性加速增长之后，加速过程在2003年开始向中西部区域转移，并且发达和沿海省区的增长趋于稳态；第二，中西部省区继续表现出持续的加速过程，中西部的增长潜力将是引致整体经济稳定增长的引擎；第三，基于国际增长经验和当前中国增长态势判断来看，中国成功跨入高收入阶段需要在跨越临界点前至少10年保持相对稳定增长。
本文通過藉助艾肯格林設定經濟增長減緩和加速需要滿足的條件，攷察新中國成立後我國經濟增長趨勢性特徵。通過本文的研究髮現：第一，新中國成立後，我國經濟經過階段性加速增長之後，加速過程在2003年開始嚮中西部區域轉移，併且髮達和沿海省區的增長趨于穩態；第二，中西部省區繼續錶現齣持續的加速過程，中西部的增長潛力將是引緻整體經濟穩定增長的引擎；第三，基于國際增長經驗和噹前中國增長態勢判斷來看，中國成功跨入高收入階段需要在跨越臨界點前至少10年保持相對穩定增長。
본문통과차조애긍격림설정경제증장감완화가속수요만족적조건，고찰신중국성립후아국경제증장추세성특정。통과본문적연구발현：제일，신중국성립후，아국경제경과계단성가속증장지후，가속과정재2003년개시향중서부구역전이，병차발체화연해성구적증장추우은태；제이，중서부성구계속표현출지속적가속과정，중서부적증장잠력장시인치정체경제은정증장적인경；제삼，기우국제증장경험화당전중국증장태세판단래간，중국성공과입고수입계단수요재과월림계점전지소10년보지상대은정증장。
Through the requirements of growth slowdowns or acceleration which are set by Eichengreen and constantly adjusting the constraint equations, this paper pursues the trend characteristics on the economy growth path. Through the empirical research of this paper, the following main conclusions are： First, after 2003, the acceleration process of China＇s economic growth began to shift from the developed coastal provinces to the eastern and western provinces, its economic growth tends to be stable. Second , the acceleration process of the central and western provinces is still obvious, and the central and western provinces will be the new engine of China economic growth. Third, with the comparison of international economic growth experience, we found that, China must have remained relatively stable growth at least 10 years before entering the stage of high - income.
