CAJ | 학술논문

把握局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退的动态转化规律对于预测经济衰退走势和合理规避风险具有重要意义。本文实证分析了1961年—2013年局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退间的转换关系。研究结论如下：首先,美、日、英三国共同的经济衰退是世界经济衰退的先导因素;其次,自20世纪90年代开始,中国、印度和巴西与发达国家的经济周期协同变动趋势开始显现,由此导致的共同衰退将直接转换为世界经济衰退;最后,东亚地区和拉美地区的局部经济衰退将通过发达国家和三个较大发展中国家间接导致全球经济衰退。此外,东亚和拉美的经济衰退之间无明显转换关系。
파악국부경제쇠퇴여전구경제쇠퇴적동태전화규률대우예측경제쇠퇴주세화합리규피풍험구유중요의의。본문실증분석료1961년—2013년국부경제쇠퇴여전구경제쇠퇴간적전환관계。연구결론여하：수선,미、일、영삼국공동적경제쇠퇴시세계경제쇠퇴적선도인소;기차,자20세기90년대개시,중국、인도화파서여발체국가적경제주기협동변동추세개시현현,유차도치적공동쇠퇴장직접전환위세계경제쇠퇴;최후,동아지구화랍미지구적국부경제쇠퇴장통과발체국가화삼개교대발전중국가간접도치전구경제쇠퇴。차외,동아화랍미적경제쇠퇴지간무명현전환관계。
Mastering the dynamic tmndormation rule between local economic recession and global economic recession has an important guiding significance for predicting recession and reasonable risk aversion. By adopting the cluster Markov regime switching model proposed by Hamilton and Owyang （2012） ,and using Gibbs sampler and cross validation methods, this paper carries out an empirical study on the transfer relationship between local economic recession and global economic recession during the period of 1961 - 2013. Conclusions are as follows： first, the synchronization of economic recession of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom is the leading factor in global economic recession; secondly, since the beginning of 1990＇s, the trend of business cycle synchronization between Chinese, India, Brazil and the developed countries began to appear, and their common recession wull directly convert to a global economic recession; finally, the local economic recessions of East Asia and Latin America Hill indirectly turn into a global economic recession by firstly transferring to the developed countries and three large developing countries. In addition, the transfer relationship between the recessions of East Asia and Latin America is not obvious.