CAJ | 학술논문

本文在四川省能源消费、环境污染和经济增长的时间序列数据基础上,利用主成分和因子分析的方法将工业废水、工业固体废物排放量等六个指标折算为环境污染综合指数,并通过建立向量自回归模型,发现污染综合指数、能源消费与污染的交叉乘积项对经济增长存在长期稳定关系,能源消费对经济增长的正向效应大于环境污染对经济增长的负向效应,但环境污染本身对经济增长负向效应显著,且能源消费与环境污染对经济的脉冲效应在第5年开始趋于平稳。建议通过配额管理、优化要素投入结构、推动产业结构升级等措施提高能源消费效益。
본문재사천성능원소비、배경오염화경제증장적시간서렬수거기출상,이용주성분화인자분석적방법장공업폐수、공업고체폐물배방량등륙개지표절산위배경오염종합지수,병통과건립향량자회귀모형,발현오염종합지수、능원소비여오염적교차승적항대경제증장존재장기은정관계,능원소비대경제증장적정향효응대우배경오염대경제증장적부향효응,단배경오염본신대경제증장부향효응현저,차능원소비여배경오염대경제적맥충효응재제5년개시추우평은。건의통과배액관리、우화요소투입결구、추동산업결구승급등조시제고능원소비효익。
Energy consumption is an important guarantee for economic growth and social development and also an important reason for environmental pollution. The problem of environmental pollution and economic growth caused by energy consumption is very complicated, which is worthy of attention. On the basis of Sichuan＇s time series data about energy consumption, environmental pollution, and economic growth, this paper firstly makes use of principal component and factor analysis method to change six indicators such as industrial wastewater, industrial solid waste emissions into a comprehensive indicator reflecting the level of pollution. Then we calculate comprehensive pollution index by building vector auto regression model and using the method cointegration test method and confirm the stable longterm relationship between the cross product of energy consumption and pollution and the economic growth. Positive effect on economic growth caused by energy consumption is larger than the negative effect on economic growth caused by environmental pollution, but environmental pollution leads to significantly negative influence on economic growth and. Impulse effect of energy consumption and environmental pollution on economic growth has leveled off in the fifth year. The author suggests to improve energy consumption efficiency through quota management, optimization of factor input structure, and promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure and other means.