台湾研究集刊
檯灣研究集刊
태만연구집간
Taiwan Research Quarterly
2015年
3期
40~48
,共null页
台湾地区 中间选民 结构 特征
檯灣地區 中間選民 結構 特徵
태만지구 중간선민 결구 특정
Taiwan, median voters, structure, characteristics
中间选民理论认为,在选举政治体系中存有一定数量的中间选民,其投票行为相对理性务实,在特定情境下可以决定选举结果.台湾地区的中间选民在其领导人选举中具有举足轻重的影响力.本文在概述中间选民理论的基础上,深入分析了台湾地区中间选民的结构和特征,为预判2016年台湾地区领导人选举提供有益参考.
中間選民理論認為,在選舉政治體繫中存有一定數量的中間選民,其投票行為相對理性務實,在特定情境下可以決定選舉結果.檯灣地區的中間選民在其領導人選舉中具有舉足輕重的影響力.本文在概述中間選民理論的基礎上,深入分析瞭檯灣地區中間選民的結構和特徵,為預判2016年檯灣地區領導人選舉提供有益參攷.
중간선민이론인위,재선거정치체계중존유일정수량적중간선민,기투표행위상대이성무실,재특정정경하가이결정선거결과.태만지구적중간선민재기령도인선거중구유거족경중적영향력.본문재개술중간선민이론적기출상,심입분석료태만지구중간선민적결구화특정,위예판2016년태만지구령도인선거제공유익삼고.
The median voter theory holds that there exist a certain number of median voters in the system of political elec- tion, whose political behaviors are relatively rational and pragmatic, and they can, in specific contexts, decide the outcome of the election. In fact, the median voters have played a decisive role in the Taiwan leader＇ s election. Based on the summary of the median voter theory, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the structure and characteristics of the median voters in Tai- wan area, which, the writer believes, can provide a useful reference to the accurate forecast of the Taiwan leader＇ s election in 2016.
