国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2015年
7期
44~54
,共null页
流动性波动 利率 货币供应量 货币政策传导机制
流動性波動 利率 貨幣供應量 貨幣政策傳導機製
류동성파동 리솔 화폐공응량 화폐정책전도궤제
Liquidity Fluctuation; Interest Rate; Money Supply; Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
流动性波动削弱了我国货币政策的调控效果，使经济运行风险增大。本文基于流动性波动对货币政策传导机制的影响．采用VAR模型实证检验分析了无流动性波动、有流动性波动两种情况下利率和货币供应量对贷款总量、投资、GDP、CPI的冲击和影响。结果发现．在流动性波动下．利率和货币供应量对贷款总量、投资的冲击效果较好．对GDP、CPI冲击效果欠佳，且冲击程度和方向不稳定，很难引导和稳定市场预期，反映货币政策传导机制不畅，流动性波动减弱了两种政策变量的时效性。增大了政策变量冲击和影响效果的波动性。政策风险显著，影响到金融稳定。同时。受货币政策时滞延长的影响。两个政策变量的政策效果、时效性不同。价格型政策变量的调控作用有所增强，优势逐渐凸显．数量型政策变量效果相对欠佳。
流動性波動削弱瞭我國貨幣政策的調控效果，使經濟運行風險增大。本文基于流動性波動對貨幣政策傳導機製的影響．採用VAR模型實證檢驗分析瞭無流動性波動、有流動性波動兩種情況下利率和貨幣供應量對貸款總量、投資、GDP、CPI的遲擊和影響。結果髮現．在流動性波動下．利率和貨幣供應量對貸款總量、投資的遲擊效果較好．對GDP、CPI遲擊效果欠佳，且遲擊程度和方嚮不穩定，很難引導和穩定市場預期，反映貨幣政策傳導機製不暢，流動性波動減弱瞭兩種政策變量的時效性。增大瞭政策變量遲擊和影響效果的波動性。政策風險顯著，影響到金融穩定。同時。受貨幣政策時滯延長的影響。兩箇政策變量的政策效果、時效性不同。價格型政策變量的調控作用有所增彊，優勢逐漸凸顯．數量型政策變量效果相對欠佳。
류동성파동삭약료아국화폐정책적조공효과，사경제운행풍험증대。본문기우류동성파동대화폐정책전도궤제적영향．채용VAR모형실증검험분석료무류동성파동、유류동성파동량충정황하리솔화화폐공응량대대관총량、투자、GDP、CPI적충격화영향。결과발현．재류동성파동하．리솔화화폐공응량대대관총량、투자적충격효과교호．대GDP、CPI충격효과흠가，차충격정도화방향불은정，흔난인도화은정시장예기，반영화폐정책전도궤제불창，류동성파동감약료량충정책변량적시효성。증대료정책변량충격화영향효과적파동성。정책풍험현저，영향도금융은정。동시。수화폐정책시체연장적영향。량개정책변량적정책효과、시효성불동。개격형정책변량적조공작용유소증강，우세축점철현．수량형정책변량효과상대흠가。
Liquidity fluctuations have reduced the effectiveness of the monetary policy instruments and increased the operational risk of China＇s economy. Based on the effect of liquidity fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism, this paper uses the VAR model to compare and analyze the effects that interest rate and money supply exerted on the total loan, investment, the Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index. Empirical research shows that, against the background of liquidity fluctuations, both the interest rate and the money supply have a larger impact on total loan and investment but a smaller impact on the Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index. Besides, the impact and stability have also been affected to varying degrees. That shows that the monetary policy transmission mechanism is blocked, and the liquidity fluctuations increased the fluctuations of the effect that the monetary policy exerted, weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, and influenced the stability of the financial system. At the same time, the effects and the timeliness of different policy tools are different. The effectiveness of the price-based monetary policy tools has been enhanced and the effectiveness of the quantitative monetary policy tools has been relatively weakened. The combined effect of two monetary policy tools is better than that without liquidity fluctuations.
