CAJ | 학술논문

本文以88个发展中国家为样本（1974—2010年）．考察了资本账户自由化对发展中国家汇率制度选择的影响。研究发现．不同的资本账户自由化测算方法是影响这种关系的重要因素：采用名义测算方法衡量资本账户自由化程度时．资本账户自由化程度越高的发展中国家越可能采用更有弹性的汇率制度：采用事实测算方法衡量资本账户自由化程度时。资本账户自由化程度越高的发展中国家则越可能采用更缺乏弹性的汇率制度。本文随后采用两种方法测度了政府对资本流动的实际控制程度．并以此为基础展开进一步的实证研究。实证结果支持本文提出的理论假说．即实际资本控制程度越高的经济体越可能采用更有弹性的汇率制度，而实际资本控制程度越低的经济体则越不可能提高汇率弹性。
본문이88개발전중국가위양본（1974—2010년）．고찰료자본장호자유화대발전중국가회솔제도선택적영향。연구발현．불동적자본장호자유화측산방법시영향저충관계적중요인소：채용명의측산방법형량자본장호자유화정도시．자본장호자유화정도월고적발전중국가월가능채용경유탄성적회솔제도：채용사실측산방법형량자본장호자유화정도시。자본장호자유화정도월고적발전중국가칙월가능채용경결핍탄성적회솔제도。본문수후채용량충방법측도료정부대자본류동적실제공제정도．병이차위기출전개진일보적실증연구。실증결과지지본문제출적이론가설．즉실제자본공제정도월고적경제체월가능채용경유탄성적회솔제도，이실제자본공제정도월저적경제체칙월불가능제고회솔탄성。
The paper empirically tests the impact of capital account openness on the choice of exchange-rate regimes with a sample of 88 developing countries（1974--2010）. The paper finds the impact is dependent upon the different estimations of capital account openness： Developing countries with more de jure open capital accounts are more likely to be associated with flexible exchange-rate regimes, while those with higher de facto open capital accounts are more likely to adopt more rigid regimes. The contrasting evidences lead us to use both de jure and de facto indicators of capital account openness to create two indices to estimate a country＇s de facto controls over capital flows relative to de jure capital account openness it preannounced ex ante. Further evidences support our hypothesis that developing countries with more de facto controls over capital flows relative to what they say ex ante are more likely to allow more exchange rate flexibility, while those having less de facto controls over capital flows are less likely to increase exchange rate flexibility.