CAJ | 학술논문

运用文献资料法、时间序列计量等方法,搜集我国1995—2012年时间序列数据,构建包含体育财政投入、体育事业发展和经济增长三变量的向量自回归模型,实证研究三者的动态变化特征和交互影响机制,以弥补现有研究的不足,同时为我国体育事业发展相关政策的制定提供有益的经验证据。研究结果表明：体育财政投入、体育事业发展以及经济增长三者的变化具有协同性,仅研究单独的两个变量容易出现偏误。三者间具有紧密的联动关系,其中,体育财政投入能够通过促进体育事业发展来间接带动经济增长;体育事业发展和经济增长在短期和长期均相互促进,但体育事业发展和经济增长对投入的拉动作用不具有长期效应。为保证体育事业健康发展,进而推动我国的经济增长,结合实证结果和我国实际,提出如下政策建议：有关部门在制定财政投入预算时要提高针对性和目的性;继续加大对体育事业和第三产业的扶持和政策倾斜力度;特别是在制定相关政策时,要充分考虑政策的反应期,从而增强政策的前瞻性、针对性和有效性。
운용문헌자료법、시간서렬계량등방법,수집아국1995—2012년시간서렬수거,구건포함체육재정투입、체육사업발전화경제증장삼변량적향량자회귀모형,실증연구삼자적동태변화특정화교호영향궤제,이미보현유연구적불족,동시위아국체육사업발전상관정책적제정제공유익적경험증거。연구결과표명：체육재정투입、체육사업발전이급경제증장삼자적변화구유협동성,부연구단독적량개변량용역출현편오。삼자간구유긴밀적련동관계,기중,체육재정투입능구통과촉진체육사업발전래간접대동경제증장;체육사업발전화경제증장재단기화장기균상호촉진,단체육사업발전화경제증장대투입적랍동작용불구유장기효응。위보증체육사업건강발전,진이추동아국적경제증장,결합실증결과화아국실제,제출여하정책건의：유관부문재제정재정투입예산시요제고침대성화목적성;계속가대대체육사업화제삼산업적부지화정책경사력도;특별시재제정상관정책시,요충분고필정책적반응기,종이증강정책적전첨성、침대성화유효성。
Using the methods of literature review and time series measurement,based on China＇s time-series data in 1995- 2012,we employed a VAR model including sports financial investment,sports business development and economic growth to study their dynamic changes and interrelated characteristics,to make up for the inadequacy of existing research and provide useful experience for the establishment of related policies for our country sports enterprise development. The results showed that sports financial investment,sports business development and economic growth change synergistically,the model which includes only two variables is prone to be biased. There is a close linkage among them,sports financial investment promotes economic growth through boosting the development of sports industry,sports development and economic growth promote mutually in both short and long-term,sports development and economic growth do not drive into more sports financial investment in the long- term. In order to promote the healthy development of sports industry and economic growth in China,we make the following proposals： when developing financial investment budget,relevant departments should be targeted and purposeful; continue to support sports industry and the tertiary industry and make more policy support; when formulating relevant policies,policy makers should consolidate distribution,and take full account of time- lag effect,enhance the perspectiveness,pertinence and effectiveness of the policies.