CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用中国31个省、直辖市和自治区的面板数据来分析我国过去十余年房地产行业扩张与人口、GDP、城市化水平、收入等因素的关系，以空间面板模型为基础，通过选取恰当的模型引入变量之间的空间效应，研究房地产行业扩张的区域效应。实证结果表明，各地区房地产投资规模与本地GDP、人口数量、城镇化率等因素有显著关系，同时区域之间的空间面板估计也具有显著性，从而说明我国房地产行业扩张的主要驱动力在于区域效应与国民经济增长、人口增长、城镇化水平等基本因素，它们是房地产行业保持理性健康发展的基础。
문장이용중국31개성、직할시화자치구적면판수거래분석아국과거십여년방지산행업확장여인구、GDP、성시화수평、수입등인소적관계，이공간면판모형위기출，통과선취흡당적모형인입변량지간적공간효응，연구방지산행업확장적구역효응。실증결과표명，각지구방지산투자규모여본지GDP、인구수량、성진화솔등인소유현저관계，동시구역지간적공간면판고계야구유현저성，종이설명아국방지산행업확장적주요구동력재우구역효응여국민경제증장、인구증장、성진화수평등기본인소，타문시방지산행업보지이성건강발전적기출。
Based on the panel data from 31 provinces, independently administered municipal districts and autonomous regions, this article analyzes the relation between expansion of real estate industry and population, GDP, level of urbanization and income. It is based on spatial panel and selects prop- er model to introduce spatial effect of variables so as to study the regional effect of the expansion of this industry. The evidence shows that there is an obvious relation between investment scale of this industry with regional GDP, population and urbanization. At the same time, the estimation of spa- tial panel among different regions is also very notable. This shows that the main motive power of the expansion lies in the regional effect and the growth of national economy, of population and level of urbanization. They are the basis of the reasonable and healthy development of the industry.