CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过建立中国动态可计算一般均衡模型,以《大气污染防治行动计划》所设立的空气质量控制目标为基础设置情景,对中国能源结构调整、技术进步（能效提高与清洁技术进步）与雾霾治理的政策组合进行模拟研究。实证研究结果表明,推进能源结构调整与技术进步才是治理雾霾的根本手段。具体而言,在加快能源清洁技术进步、提高能源利用效率的基础上并以硫税或碳税为工具降低能源强度,从而降低以PM2.5（可入肺颗粒物）和PM10（可吸入颗粒物）为主要构成的雾霾污染。在治理雾霾的同时,该政策组合还可带来一些协同效益。首先,该政策组合能有效地改善我国长期以来以煤炭为主的能源消费结构,大幅降低煤炭在一次能源消费中的占比。其次,在该政策组合下,各行业实施相同的硫税和碳税税率,各行业因能耗量不同而承担不同的税负。结果是重工业被遏制,第三产业得到鼓励,从而优化我国以高耗能、高污染的重工业为主的产业结构。并且硫税在调节能源结构方面比碳税效果明显,但对经济的负面影响也比碳税大。加快能源清洁技术发展、征收污染税是雾霾治理的有效手段。虽然实施上述税收会在一定阶段一定程度上抑制经济增长,但加快能源清洁技术进步不会对经济产生负面影响。如果没有其他政策配合,单独提高能源利用效率会由于降低能源使用成本而增加能源消费,进而加剧大气污染。因此,必须应用多种政策组合才能实现雾霾治理和经济发展的双重目标。我们给出了实现上述双重目标的最优政策选择。
본문통과건립중국동태가계산일반균형모형,이《대기오염방치행동계화》소설립적공기질량공제목표위기출설치정경,대중국능원결구조정、기술진보（능효제고여청길기술진보）여무매치리적정책조합진행모의연구。실증연구결과표명,추진능원결구조정여기술진보재시치리무매적근본수단。구체이언,재가쾌능원청길기술진보、제고능원이용효솔적기출상병이류세혹탄세위공구강저능원강도,종이강저이PM2.5（가입폐과립물）화PM10（가흡입과립물）위주요구성적무매오염。재치리무매적동시,해정책조합환가대래일사협동효익。수선,해정책조합능유효지개선아국장기이래이매탄위주적능원소비결구,대폭강저매탄재일차능원소비중적점비。기차,재해정책조합하,각행업실시상동적류세화탄세세솔,각행업인능모량불동이승담불동적세부。결과시중공업피알제,제삼산업득도고려,종이우화아국이고모능、고오염적중공업위주적산업결구。병차류세재조절능원결구방면비탄세효과명현,단대경제적부면영향야비탄세대。가쾌능원청길기술발전、정수오염세시무매치리적유효수단。수연실시상술세수회재일정계단일정정도상억제경제증장,단가쾌능원청길기술진보불회대경제산생부면영향。여과몰유기타정책배합,단독제고능원이용효솔회유우강저능원사용성본이증가능원소비,진이가극대기오염。인차,필수응용다충정책조합재능실현무매치리화경제발전적쌍중목표。아문급출료실현상술쌍중목표적최우정책선택。
A dynamic computable general equilibrium （CDCGE）model of China was constructed to simulate some scenarios based on the control targets established in ＇The Action Plan for Air Pollution Control＇. The simulations were carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of energy structure adjustment and technology progress （ energy efficiency and energy clearing technologies） in the haze governance in China. The analysis results show that energy structure adjustment and technology progress are the fundamental measures for haze abatement in China. Concretely, a policy combination of accelerating progress of energy clearing technology, improving the energy efficiency and decreasing energy intensity by sulfur and carbon tax, can effectively mitigate the haze pollution, which mainly consists of PM2.5 （fine particulate matter） and PM10 （inhalable particle）. This policy combination will take some synergic benefits during the process of haze governance. Firstly, the policy combination could effectively improve Chinese energy consumption structure, in which coal consumption has a dominant position for a long time, by slashing the coal share in primary energy consumption sharply. Secondly, under this policy combination, although all sectors face the same carbon and sulfur tax rate, different tax burden is interpreted according to uneven energy consumption among sectors. Consequently, heavy industry is crippled while tertiary industry is encouraged. Owing to this effect, industrial structure of China will be advanced, which is now dominated by heavy industry sector and characterized as high energy consumption and pollution. Furthermore, the sulfur tax is much more powerful than carbon tax in regard to changing the energy structure. However, sulfur tax could abate the economy development more severely than the carbon＇ s. Both accelerating the development of energy cleaning technology and imposing pollution tax may be effective methods of haze governance. Although the taxes may restrain the economic growth, accelerating the improvement of energy cleaning technology will not generate negative effect on the economy. Only improvement of energy efficiency will raise energy consumption due to cost reduction of energy, and aggravation of atmosphere pollution will follow unless cooperated with other policies. In a word, the policy combination should be employed to achieve two goals for both haze governance and economic growth. Under these circumstances, we put forward the optimal policy recommendations according to the two goals mentioned above.