CAJ | 학술논문

将跨界农民用水冲突中的主体按照个体异质性和角色异质性分为村民Agent和村干部Agent,基于复杂网络理论、博弈学习理论和定性仿真方法,构建了反映跨界农民用水冲突动态扩散过程的演化模型,研究村民Agent在其自身差异和村干部Agent行为的影响下,会产生怎样的集体选择,这样的集体选择决定了冲突在群体中扩散或消解的程度。基于Net Logo平台的仿真结果表明,村民Agent之间的网络效应越强,村民Agent的行动越发表现出集体一致性。网络效应对冲突的扩散具有促进作用还是抑制作用与群体中采取冲突策略的Agent数量有关。网络效应易于使得冲突进入僵持状态。村民Agent对冲突的预期越强烈,对冲突的消解越不利。在预期效应的影响下,冲突策略的先发优势被扭转。村干部Agent通过对采取冲突策略的村民Agent增加收益、增强村民Agent对冲突策略的网络效应和对冲突策略的预期,导致冲突在群体中扩散。基于仿真结果,给出跨界农民用水冲突对策建议。
장과계농민용수충돌중적주체안조개체이질성화각색이질성분위촌민Agent화촌간부Agent,기우복잡망락이론、박혁학습이론화정성방진방법,구건료반영과계농민용수충돌동태확산과정적연화모형,연구촌민Agent재기자신차이화촌간부Agent행위적영향하,회산생즘양적집체선택,저양적집체선택결정료충돌재군체중확산혹소해적정도。기우Net Logo평태적방진결과표명,촌민Agent지간적망락효응월강,촌민Agent적행동월발표현출집체일치성。망락효응대충돌적확산구유촉진작용환시억제작용여군체중채취충돌책략적Agent수량유관。망락효응역우사득충돌진입강지상태。촌민Agent대충돌적예기월강렬,대충돌적소해월불리。재예기효응적영향하,충돌책략적선발우세피뉴전。촌간부Agent통과대채취충돌책략적촌민Agent증가수익、증강촌민Agent대충돌책략적망락효응화대충돌책략적예기,도치충돌재군체중확산。기우방진결과,급출과계농민용수충돌대책건의。
According to individual heterogeneity and role heterogeneity, the agents in a trans-boundary farmer water conflict were divided into villager agents and village cadre agents. Based on small world effect model of complex network and agent-based modeling and simulation method, combined with EWA algorithm of game learning theory and qualitative simulation method, the evolutionary model reflecting the dynamic diffusion process of trans-boundary farmer water conflict was set up to study what collective-selection was to be produced by the villager agents under the influences of agent heterogeneity and the behaviors of the village cadre agents. The collective-selection produced by the villager agents would decide the degree of group conflict diffusion or resolution. The simulation based on NetLogo platform shows that the stronger the network effects among the villager agents are, the more collective consistently the villager agents behaviors will be shown. Whether the network effects will promote or restrain the conflict relates on the villager agent amount adopting the conflict strategy. The network effects are apt to bring the conflict into a stalemate. The more violent the villager agents have expectation on conflict, the more disadvantageous it is to solve conflict. Under the influences of expected effects, the first- mover advantage of conflict strategy is changed. The village cadre agents can lead to conflict diffusion in group through increasing the benefits of those villager agents adopting conflict strategy, strengthening the network effects and expectation of villager agents on conflict strategy. At last, the suggestions for the conflict are provided based on the simulation conclusions.