CAJ | 학술논문

文章研究零售业中外资溢出的非线性效应。理论分析表明,外资进入不仅会通过模仿示范效应、技术扩散效应、竞争效应、产业关联效应四种渠道对本土零售业产生正向溢出效应,也会通过争夺商圈资源和独占供应商等途径对本土零售业产生负向挤出效应。并且,随着FDI规模持续扩大,溢出效应会逐渐释放完毕,而挤出效应始终存在并不断上升成为主导效应,使得零售业存在倒U型溢出效应曲线。以全国28个地区2005-2012年的面板数据进行实证分析,结果印证了上述理论判断。进一步分析可知,全国多数地区零售业FDI规模已经超过最佳水平、位于挤出效应主导区间。
문장연구령수업중외자일출적비선성효응。이론분석표명,외자진입불부회통과모방시범효응、기술확산효응、경쟁효응、산업관련효응사충거도대본토령수업산생정향일출효응,야회통과쟁탈상권자원화독점공응상등도경대본토령수업산생부향제출효응。병차,수착FDI규모지속확대,일출효응회축점석방완필,이제출효응시종존재병불단상승성위주도효응,사득령수업존재도U형일출효응곡선。이전국28개지구2005-2012년적면판수거진행실증분석,결과인증료상술이론판단。진일보분석가지,전국다수지구령수업FDI규모이경초과최가수평、위우제출효응주도구간。
This paper studies the nonlinear FDI spillover effects in retailing industry. The theoretical analysis indicates that inward FDI can not only exert positive spillover effects on Chinese retailing industry through demonstration effects,competition effects,technology diffusion effects and industry correlation effects,but also cause negative crowding-out effects by competing with local retailing industry for trading area and supplier resources etc. Moreover,with the growing of FDI,the positive spillover effects will diminish while crowding-out effects keep rising to become the leading effects so that there exists an inversed U-shaped curve regarding spillover effects in the retailing industry. Furthermore,based on panel data of 28 provinces and regions from 2005-2012,this paper conducts empirical analysis and the results prove the theoretical conclusion mentioned above. Further calculation shows that FDI scales in most regions in China have exceeded the optimum value and are within the dominant range where crowding-out effect leads.