CAJ | 학술논문

中国等发展中国家正面临老龄化问题的困扰，但传统老龄化国家的经济社会发展却呈明显的“老而未衰”特征。文献综述的结果表明，这种与传统观点相背离的事实需要在个体行为调整的视角下予以解释。基于此，文章构建了人口老龄化内生的OLG模型，讨论老龄化进程中个体行为的调整方向，并利用法国的时间序列数据展开经验实证。理论和经验实证结果均表明，预期寿命的变化将引起储蓄率、劳动时间投入和人力资本积跫水平的持续提升，以及生育率的先降后升。这说明老龄化会对平均产出水平有持续的正向影响，并将有利于我国正确认识和有效应对人口老龄化挑战。
중국등발전중국가정면림노령화문제적곤우，단전통노령화국가적경제사회발전각정명현적“로이미쇠”특정。문헌종술적결과표명，저충여전통관점상배리적사실수요재개체행위조정적시각하여이해석。기우차，문장구건료인구노령화내생적OLG모형，토론노령화진정중개체행위적조정방향，병이용법국적시간서렬수거전개경험실증。이론화경험실증결과균표명，예기수명적변화장인기저축솔、노동시간투입화인력자본적공수평적지속제승，이급생육솔적선강후승。저설명노령화회대평균산출수평유지속적정향영향，병장유리우아국정학인식화유효응대인구노령화도전。
Such developing countries as China are perplexed by population aging, but evidence from traditional aging coun- tries shows that population aging does not necessarily lead to economic crash. According to the literature review, the fact can be explained from a perspective of coordination of individual behaviors. Based on these, an OLG model with endogenous population aging is constructed to study the adjustment of individual behavior in population aging process. Meanwhile, an empirical study is carried out with the time - series data from France. The results show that increase in life expectancy can lead to the increase of saving rate, time spent on working and human capital accumulation. The increase in life expectancy also leads to fertility rate de- creasing first and increasing afterwards. The result also shows that population aging can have positive impact on GDP per capita, which can help China understand correctly and deal with effectively the challenge brought about by population aging.