CAJ | 학술논문

使用2002—2012年间贸易数据,基于扩展的引力模型从产品分类角度研究了中国与28个样本国主要农产品贸易流量的影响因素,并测算了贸易潜力。研究表明,经济规模起到明显的促进作用,地理距离产生较强的阻碍作用,人口规模的影响不确定,各类贸易集团的作用不同。中国对劳动密集型农产品出口有待进一步提高,同时,应调整土地密集型产品进口结构,加强与农产品贸易大国的联系。因此,为了扩大农产品贸易发展,中国应实施市场多元化战略,实现农产品进出口差异化,积极加强农业合作,开展自由贸易区建设。
사용2002—2012년간무역수거,기우확전적인력모형종산품분류각도연구료중국여28개양본국주요농산품무역류량적영향인소,병측산료무역잠력。연구표명,경제규모기도명현적촉진작용,지리거리산생교강적조애작용,인구규모적영향불학정,각류무역집단적작용불동。중국대노동밀집형농산품출구유대진일보제고,동시,응조정토지밀집형산품진구결구,가강여농산품무역대국적련계。인차,위료확대농산품무역발전,중국응실시시장다원화전략,실현농산품진출구차이화,적겁가강농업합작,개전자유무역구건설。
This paper ,based on the extended gravity model from the perspective of classification and the trade data between 2002 and 2012 , studies the influential factors in China and 28 countries＇ major agricultural trade flows ,and estimates the trade potential . The results show that economic scale has been promoted , geographical distance produces a strong impediment , the impact of population size is uncertain and various types of RTBs have different effects . Meanwhile , Chinese exports of labor‐intensive agricultural products need to be improved . China should adjust the structure of land‐intensive imported products and strengthen ties with the agricultural trading powers . Therefore , in order to expand agricultural trade development , China should implement the strategy of market diversification , achieve differentiation of import and export of agricultural products , actively strengthen agricultural cooperation , and carry out the construction of FTA .