CAJ | 학술논문

中国大力推进保障房建设的制度实践，引起了理论界的思考和研究。赞成者认为保障房可以改善低收入家庭福利，有利于社会和谐稳定；而持怀疑态度的则认为这一制度对商品住宅市场存在着挤出效应，从而降低住房市场效率。本文在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上，从理论上分析了保障房对商品住宅市场挤出效应的机理，并借鉴了挤出效应分析有影响的数理模型，基于浙江省11个地市2003-2012年面板数据，对保障房究竟在多大程度和范围内具有挤出效应进行了实证分析。实证结果显示，在10岩的显著性水平下，嘉兴和台州的挤出效应是显著的；而在嬲的显著性水平下，所有地市的挤出效应均不显著，说明浙江省保障性住房对商品住宅市场的挤出效应总体上并不明显。
중국대력추진보장방건설적제도실천，인기료이론계적사고화연구。찬성자인위보장방가이개선저수입가정복리，유리우사회화해은정；이지부의태도적칙인위저일제도대상품주택시장존재착제출효응，종이강저주방시장효솔。본문재소리국내외상관문헌적기출상，종이론상분석료보장방대상품주택시장제출효응적궤리，병차감료제출효응분석유영향적수리모형，기우절강성11개지시2003-2012년면판수거，대보장방구경재다대정도화범위내구유제출효응진행료실증분석。실증결과현시，재10암적현저성수평하，가흥화태주적제출효응시현저적；이재뇨적현저성수평하，소유지시적제출효응균불현저，설명절강성보장성주방대상품주택시장적제출효응총체상병불명현。
Abstract： The practice of vigorously promote the construction of government-subsidized housing, causing the thinking and research in theoretical circle. The proponents believe that government- subsidized housing can improve the welfare of low-income families, and conducive to social harmony and stability; but the opponents repute that this may cause crowd-out effect to commercial housing market, thus reducing the efficiency of the housing market. Based on the carding of domestic and foreign relevant literatures, we first analysis the mechanism of crowding-out effect from theoretical level, and then in order to find out the extent and scope of crowd-out effect exist, we carried out an empirical analysis based on the panel data between 2003 - 2012 of 11 cities in Zhejiang Province, and reference many influential mathematical models of crowding-out effect analysis. The empirical results show that at the 10% significance level, the crowd-out effect of Jiaxing and Taizhou is significant; while at the 5% significance level, all of the cities are not significant, indicating that the crowd-out effect of government- subsidized housing to commercial housing market is not obvious on the overall in Zhejiang Province.