CAJ | 학술논문

利率双轨制是我国货币政策工具运用时不可忽视的因素。通过构建一个DSGE模型，本文探讨了利率双轨制和利率市场化两种不同利率决定结构对货币政策工具选择的影响。模型的动态模拟结果表明：利率双轨制时期，信贷额度计划和窗口指导的微调效果较好、效应持续性强，上调受抑制的存款利率可减弱通胀压力并促进经济增长，存款准备金率与其他货币政策工具相比，会引起物价和产出等经济变量更大幅度的波动；利率完全市场化时期，运用信贷计划、存款准备金率等数量型工具并不能带来双轨制时期的调控效果，理想的政策操作是调整遵循泰勒规则的基准利率。
리솔쌍궤제시아국화폐정책공구운용시불가홀시적인소。통과구건일개DSGE모형，본문탐토료리솔쌍궤제화리솔시장화량충불동리솔결정결구대화폐정책공구선택적영향。모형적동태모의결과표명：리솔쌍궤제시기，신대액도계화화창구지도적미조효과교호、효응지속성강，상조수억제적존관리솔가감약통창압력병촉진경제증장，존관준비금솔여기타화폐정책공구상비，회인기물개화산출등경제변량경대폭도적파동；리솔완전시장화시기，운용신대계화、존관준비금솔등수량형공구병불능대래쌍궤제시기적조공효과，이상적정책조작시조정준순태륵규칙적기준리솔。
Dual-track interest rate system is an assignable factor for monetary policy instrument in China. This paper builds a DSGE model and investigates monetary policy instrument selection under two different interest rate decision structures. The dynamic simulation of model shows ： in the time of dual-track interest rates, credit line and window-guiding have a better fine- tuning and a longer durable effect. Raising the inhibited deposit rate could reduce inflation pressure and promote economic growth. And the RRR, compared with the interest rate rule, credit line rule and other monetary policy instruments, causes the most significant fluctuations of economic variables such as inflation and real output; While in the period of interest rates decided by market, quantitative instruments such as credit line rule and RRR can＇t bring the same effect like that in the period of dual-track interest rates. The benchmark interest rate following the Taylor rule could not only achieve the regulation purpose but also be compliance with the principle of prudence.