四川大学学报：哲学社会科学版
四川大學學報：哲學社會科學版
사천대학학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Sichuan University(Social Science Edition)
2015年
3期
79~85
,共null页
葛斐 石雪梅 荣秀婷 李周
葛斐 石雪梅 榮秀婷 李週
갈비 석설매 영수정 리주
电力 定基消费弹性系数 产业结构调整
電力 定基消費彈性繫數 產業結構調整
전력 정기소비탄성계수 산업결구조정
power; the elastic coefficient of consumption; industrial structure adjustment
对局部区域电力消费弹性系数与产业结构进行定性分析,发现电力消费弹性系数与产业结构之间具有较强的关联性,第二、第三产业增加值比重提高会导致定基电力消费弹性系数上升,且对第三产业的影响幅度较大。由此构建定基电力消费弹性系数与产业结构定量模型,通过该模型对区域全社会用电量进行预测,结果显示该模型预测误差较小,可用性较高。因此,在合理发展第二产业的同时,需重视第三产业内部结构的优化。
對跼部區域電力消費彈性繫數與產業結構進行定性分析,髮現電力消費彈性繫數與產業結構之間具有較彊的關聯性,第二、第三產業增加值比重提高會導緻定基電力消費彈性繫數上升,且對第三產業的影響幅度較大。由此構建定基電力消費彈性繫數與產業結構定量模型,通過該模型對區域全社會用電量進行預測,結果顯示該模型預測誤差較小,可用性較高。因此,在閤理髮展第二產業的同時,需重視第三產業內部結構的優化。
대국부구역전력소비탄성계수여산업결구진행정성분석,발현전력소비탄성계수여산업결구지간구유교강적관련성,제이、제삼산업증가치비중제고회도치정기전력소비탄성계수상승,차대제삼산업적영향폭도교대。유차구건정기전력소비탄성계수여산업결구정량모형,통과해모형대구역전사회용전량진행예측,결과현시해모형예측오차교소,가용성교고。인차,재합리발전제이산업적동시,수중시제삼산업내부결구적우화。
This paper qualitatively analyzes the elastic coefficient of power consumption and the industrial structure, and finds a strong correlation between them. The paper uses a new elastic coefficient of power consumption based on the price in 1990 for further exploration, and concludes that the proportional increase of the second and third industries will raise elastic coefficient of power consumption, which in turn has an obvious impact on the third industry. This model is used to forecast regional power consumption, with the results turning out to be fairly accurate, which proves it to be applicable. Therefore, it is important to optimize the internal structure of the third industry while developing the second industry.
