CAJ | 학술논문

通过建立数理模型可知,路径依赖既可以使得经济增长得到良性循环也有可能导致被锁定在低效的状态（lock-in effect）,陷入恶性循环;经济增长对制度的影响可以更好地解释朝代兴衰更替;不良制度的存在使得即使有技术的进步,但是经济也不一定得到有效发展;以中国为实例计量可知,在控制了人力、物力资本以及技术等主要要素后,过渡到社会主义市场经济时期,制度对经济增长的作用大大增加了,制度与经济增长之间形成了良性互动和循环,其路径依赖又更进一步加强了制度对经济增长的促进作用,因此中国经济增长的奇迹离不开制度红利的释放。
통과건립수리모형가지,로경의뢰기가이사득경제증장득도량성순배야유가능도치피쇄정재저효적상태（lock-in effect）,함입악성순배;경제증장대제도적영향가이경호지해석조대흥쇠경체;불량제도적존재사득즉사유기술적진보,단시경제야불일정득도유효발전;이중국위실례계량가지,재공제료인력、물력자본이급기술등주요요소후,과도도사회주의시장경제시기,제도대경제증장적작용대대증가료,제도여경제증장지간형성료량성호동화순배,기로경의뢰우경진일보가강료제도대경제증장적촉진작용,인차중국경제증장적기적리불개제도홍리적석방。
By building up a mathematic model,we conclude that path dependence not only can accelerate economical growth,but also leads to a lock-in inefficiency,furthermore,plunges itself into a vicious spiral.The impact that economical growth has on institution can explain the dynasties＇ fall and rise better.The bad institution can hold back economical growth despite the development of technology.As a matter of china＇s experience,after controlling the factors such as labor,capital and technology,we find the impact of institution on economic growth is increased,and there is a good interaction between institution and economic growth,meanwhile,the path-dependence of the institution strengthens the impact of institution on economic growth further.Therefore the miracle of China＇s economic growth depends on the release of the institutional Dividend.