CAJ | 학술논문

以城镇化为研究背景，从我国物流业发展与产业结构高级化相互关系入手，截取1980年-2013年32个观测年份的时间序列数据．建立了物流业发展与城镇化率和产业结构的VAR模型，并在此基础上运用Gmnger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法分析3个变量在研究时段中的关系。研究结果显示：物流业发展对我国产业结构高级化和城镇化进程具有明显的促进作用：而产业结构调整和城镇化率的提高短期内对物流业发展的促进作用并不明显。这表明我国物流业本身并未达到理想状态，还需要加大对物流业的投资和政策支持。基于此，提出了当前我国物流业发展的新模式和战略路径选择。
이성진화위연구배경，종아국물류업발전여산업결구고급화상호관계입수，절취1980년-2013년32개관측년빈적시간서렬수거．건립료물류업발전여성진화솔화산업결구적VAR모형，병재차기출상운용Gmnger인과관계검험、맥충향응함수화방차분해적방법분석3개변량재연구시단중적관계。연구결과현시：물류업발전대아국산업결구고급화화성진화진정구유명현적촉진작용：이산업결구조정화성진화솔적제고단기내대물류업발전적촉진작용병불명현。저표명아국물류업본신병미체도이상상태，환수요가대대물류업적투자화정책지지。기우차，제출료당전아국물류업발전적신모식화전략로경선택。
In order to study the relationship between the development of the logistics industry and the upgrading of the in- dustrial structure under the background of the urbanization in China, this paper selects a time series data to build a VAR. model with the logistics industry development, the Urbanization rate and the industrial structure from 1980 to 2013. Then we analyze the relationship between these three variables by Granger Causality test, Impulse response function and Variance decomposition on the basis of the VAR. The result shows like this： firsdy, the development of logistics industry has a promoting effect to the upgrading of the industrial structure and the urbanization process. Secondly, industrial structure adjustment and urbanization rate do little to the logistics industry in the short term. This suggests that the logistics industry does not reach the ideal state, thus we should increase investment to the logistics industry and give it more policy support. Based on this, this paper puts forward the new development mode and the strategic path selection of the logistics industry in our country at present.