CAJ | 학술논문

交通运输对于石油产品的消耗造成的空气污染已成为我国城市及区域雾霾成分的重要来源. 价格是调整供需的主要手段, 且具有不对称性, 研究石油产品价格变动对交通需求的不对称影响效应具有实际意义. 基于此, 本文通过价格分解模型, 将中国、日本、美国的汽油和柴油价格分解为三部分, 探讨其对各国客运需求和货运需求的非对称性影响效应. 实证分析结果表明：较高的油价到目前为止并未使中国的交通需求减少, 而美国和日本的交通需求与价格均为负相关关系. 日本交通需求受油价变化的影响并不显著. 中国和美国的客运需求对于油价变化的非对称性效应均表现为价格恢复阶段的影响最大, 同时, 两国的货运需求对于油价变化较客运需求都更加敏感, 但交通需求对油价变化的反应与历史价格相关,美国消费者对于价格上涨的预期与中国消费者有很大的区别.
교통운수대우석유산품적소모조성적공기오염이성위아국성시급구역무매성분적중요래원. 개격시조정공수적주요수단, 차구유불대칭성, 연구석유산품개격변동대교통수구적불대칭영향효응구유실제의의. 기우차, 본문통과개격분해모형, 장중국、일본、미국적기유화시유개격분해위삼부분, 탐토기대각국객운수구화화운수구적비대칭성영향효응. 실증분석결과표명： 교고적유개도목전위지병미사중국적교통수구감소, 이미국화일본적교통수구여개격균위부상관관계. 일본교통수구수유개변화적영향병불현저. 중국화미국적객운수구대우유개변화적비대칭성효응균표현위개격회복계단적영향최대, 동시, 량국적화운수구대우유개변화교객운수구도경가민감, 단교통수구대유개변화적반응여역사개격상관,미국소비자대우개격상창적예기여중국소비자유흔대적구별.
The air pollution caused by the consumption of oil products by transportation has been an important source of regional haze in China. Price usually treated as the main way to adjust supply and demand which always respond asymmetric, so we thought it is practical significance if we focus on the analysis of imperfect price-reversibility of transportation demand. The comparative analysis of the asymmetric effects of changes in price on passenger and freight transportation demand of China, Japan and United States, is based on the decomposition of price. The result shows that so far the high oil price did not reduce the transportation demand in China, while the transportation demand are negative relate to oil price in United States and Japan. The oil prices are not significant effect transportation demand in Japan. Not only the imperfect price-reversibility of passenger transportation demand manifest as sub-maximum increase in price effects most in China, but also in United States. What＇s more, the freight transportation demand are more sensitive to oil price than passenger transportation demand in China and United States, however, the response of traffic demand is corresponding with historical price, and the expectation of oil price by the consumer are different between China and United States.