CAJ | 학술논문

利用1997-2010年间我国30个省的面板数据,基于门槛模型分析了城镇化对我国农民收入的影响。结果发现,城镇化对农民收入的影响存在门槛效应。进一步根据门槛面板模型得到的两个城镇化门槛值将我国30个省划分为高、中、低三种城镇化类型样本,然后对其分别进行了回归分析。结果表明,在低水平城镇化的省份,城镇化对农民收入的促进作用不显著;在中等城镇化水平省份,城镇化对农民收入的促进作用最大;而到了高水平城镇化阶段,城镇化对农民收入的促进作用则逐步降低。认为应该在不同城镇化水平的省份采取有针对性的措施,以更有效率地提高农民收入,实现缩小城乡收入差距的政策目标。
이용1997-2010년간아국30개성적면판수거,기우문함모형분석료성진화대아국농민수입적영향。결과발현,성진화대농민수입적영향존재문함효응。진일보근거문함면판모형득도적량개성진화문함치장아국30개성화분위고、중、저삼충성진화류형양본,연후대기분별진행료회귀분석。결과표명,재저수평성진화적성빈,성진화대농민수입적촉진작용불현저;재중등성진화수평성빈,성진화대농민수입적촉진작용최대;이도료고수평성진화계단,성진화대농민수입적촉진작용칙축보강저。인위응해재불동성진화수평적성빈채취유침대성적조시,이경유효솔지제고농민수입,실현축소성향수입차거적정책목표。
Based on 1997 -2010 provincial panel data, this essay employs threshold - effect model to analyze famers＇ income effect caused by urbanization. It shows that there is an threshold effect on farmers＇ income aroused by urbanization. Further, according to two thresholds decided by threshold - effect model of urbanization, China is divided into high, medium and low types. The regression results based on three kinds of urbanization shows that in the provinces of medium - level urbanization, income effect is not significant. But income effect in provinces of high - level urbanization is the highest. At the stage of high - level urbanization, the influence of promoting farmers＇ income caused by urbanization gradually reduces. This essay gives advice that government should adopt targeted measures according to the provinces with different level of urbanization. Only by this way can urbanization improve farmers＇ income more efficiently and achieve the policy objective to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas.