CAJ | 학술논문

本文对中国1996—2012年31个省市服务经济集聚的空间效应进行了现状描述和实证研究。结论如下：中国省际服务经济发展存在显著的空间集聚现象，有超过60％的省市集聚类型具有“高一高”集聚型和“低一低”集聚型的“马太效应”特征；有超过90％的省市集聚类型存在“路径依赖”特征。空间面板计量模型表明，SAR模型的空间自回归系数和SEM模型的空间自相关系数均显著为正，解释变量中的地区市场规模、人力资本、科研资源和基础设施等因素对地区服务经济发展具有显著的促进作用，而产业结构中的工业化程度则会抑制服务经济的发展。
본문대중국1996—2012년31개성시복무경제집취적공간효응진행료현상묘술화실증연구。결론여하：중국성제복무경제발전존재현저적공간집취현상，유초과60％적성시집취류형구유“고일고”집취형화“저일저”집취형적“마태효응”특정；유초과90％적성시집취류형존재“로경의뢰”특정。공간면판계량모형표명，SAR모형적공간자회귀계수화SEM모형적공간자상관계수균현저위정，해석변량중적지구시장규모、인력자본、과연자원화기출설시등인소대지구복무경제발전구유현저적촉진작용，이산업결구중적공업화정도칙회억제복무경제적발전。
Combining spatial statistics and spatial econometrics, this paper de- scribes and empirically analyzes the status of the spatial agglomeration of servic- es economy in China based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 1996 to 2012, and comes up with the following conclusions. First, global Moran＇s I in- dex is significantly positive which suggests that spatial agglomeration definitely exists in the developing services economy, and the trend of the positive spatial autocorrelation indicates a spiral development. Second, from the scatter diagram of local Moran＇s I index, ＂Matthew effect＂ characterized ＂high- high＂ ag- glomeration and ＂low- low＂ agglomeration are identified in over 60% provinc- es and cities and the ＂path dependence＂ characteristic is found in the cluster types of over 90% provinces and cities. Third, using either the ＂0- 1＂ border adjacency method or the distance attenuation method to measure the spatial weight matrix, the spatial autoregressive coefficient as shown by SAR model and the spatial autocorrelation coefficient as shown by SEM model are significantly positive, further testifying to the existence of the significant positive spatial auto- correlation in inter- provincial services economic development. Moreover, regional market scale, human resource, R＆D resource and infrastructure can significantly promote the development of local services economy, but industrialization level of the industrial structure would play an inhibiting role.