国际贸易问题
國際貿易問題
국제무역문제
Journal of International Trade
2015年
7期
97~107
,共null页
服务经济发展 空间集聚 Moran's I指数 空间计量模型 影响因素
服務經濟髮展 空間集聚 Moran's I指數 空間計量模型 影響因素
복무경제발전 공간집취 Moran's I지수 공간계량모형 영향인소
Development of services economy; Spatial agglomeration; Moran ' s I index; Spatial econometric model; Determinants
本文对中国1996—2012年31个省市服务经济集聚的空间效应进行了现状描述和实证研究。结论如下:中国省际服务经济发展存在显著的空间集聚现象,有超过60%的省市集聚类型具有“高一高”集聚型和“低一低”集聚型的“马太效应”特征;有超过90%的省市集聚类型存在“路径依赖”特征。空间面板计量模型表明,SAR模型的空间自回归系数和SEM模型的空间自相关系数均显著为正,解释变量中的地区市场规模、人力资本、科研资源和基础设施等因素对地区服务经济发展具有显著的促进作用,而产业结构中的工业化程度则会抑制服务经济的发展。
本文對中國1996—2012年31箇省市服務經濟集聚的空間效應進行瞭現狀描述和實證研究。結論如下:中國省際服務經濟髮展存在顯著的空間集聚現象,有超過60%的省市集聚類型具有“高一高”集聚型和“低一低”集聚型的“馬太效應”特徵;有超過90%的省市集聚類型存在“路徑依賴”特徵。空間麵闆計量模型錶明,SAR模型的空間自迴歸繫數和SEM模型的空間自相關繫數均顯著為正,解釋變量中的地區市場規模、人力資本、科研資源和基礎設施等因素對地區服務經濟髮展具有顯著的促進作用,而產業結構中的工業化程度則會抑製服務經濟的髮展。
본문대중국1996—2012년31개성시복무경제집취적공간효응진행료현상묘술화실증연구。결론여하:중국성제복무경제발전존재현저적공간집취현상,유초과60%적성시집취류형구유“고일고”집취형화“저일저”집취형적“마태효응”특정;유초과90%적성시집취류형존재“로경의뢰”특정。공간면판계량모형표명,SAR모형적공간자회귀계수화SEM모형적공간자상관계수균현저위정,해석변량중적지구시장규모、인력자본、과연자원화기출설시등인소대지구복무경제발전구유현저적촉진작용,이산업결구중적공업화정도칙회억제복무경제적발전。
Combining spatial statistics and spatial econometrics, this paper de- scribes and empirically analyzes the status of the spatial agglomeration of servic- es economy in China based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 1996 to 2012, and comes up with the following conclusions. First, global Moran's I in- dex is significantly positive which suggests that spatial agglomeration definitely exists in the developing services economy, and the trend of the positive spatial autocorrelation indicates a spiral development. Second, from the scatter diagram of local Moran's I index, "Matthew effect" characterized "high- high" ag- glomeration and "low- low" agglomeration are identified in over 60% provinc- es and cities and the "path dependence" characteristic is found in the cluster types of over 90% provinces and cities. Third, using either the "0- 1" border adjacency method or the distance attenuation method to measure the spatial weight matrix, the spatial autoregressive coefficient as shown by SAR model and the spatial autocorrelation coefficient as shown by SEM model are significantly positive, further testifying to the existence of the significant positive spatial auto- correlation in inter- provincial services economic development. Moreover, regional market scale, human resource, R&D resource and infrastructure can significantly promote the development of local services economy, but industrialization level of the industrial structure would play an inhibiting role.