东北大学学报：社会科学版
東北大學學報：社會科學版
동북대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)
2015年
4期
355~361
,共null页
人口年龄结构 GDP增速 股市 脉冲响应
人口年齡結構 GDP增速 股市 脈遲響應
인구년령결구 GDP증속 고시 맥충향응
age structure of population; GDP growth rate; stock market; impulse response
近年来,中国人口老龄化的趋势非常明显。选取2000—2012年的月度数据,应用向量自回归模型考察了我国人口年龄结构、GDP增速及股市涨跌情况的动态关系。实证结果表明：GDP增速与股市涨跌间存在较密切的动态关系;老年人口比重对GDP增速和股市涨跌的冲击最为显著,而且呈现出明显的负向关系;成年人口比重与GDP增速、股市涨跌均呈现明显的正向关系;GDP增速与股市涨跌在长期内对于三类人口结构的影响都不明显。
近年來,中國人口老齡化的趨勢非常明顯。選取2000—2012年的月度數據,應用嚮量自迴歸模型攷察瞭我國人口年齡結構、GDP增速及股市漲跌情況的動態關繫。實證結果錶明：GDP增速與股市漲跌間存在較密切的動態關繫;老年人口比重對GDP增速和股市漲跌的遲擊最為顯著,而且呈現齣明顯的負嚮關繫;成年人口比重與GDP增速、股市漲跌均呈現明顯的正嚮關繫;GDP增速與股市漲跌在長期內對于三類人口結構的影響都不明顯。
근년래,중국인구노령화적추세비상명현。선취2000—2012년적월도수거,응용향량자회귀모형고찰료아국인구년령결구、GDP증속급고시창질정황적동태관계。실증결과표명：GDP증속여고시창질간존재교밀절적동태관계;노년인구비중대GDP증속화고시창질적충격최위현저,이차정현출명현적부향관계;성년인구비중여GDP증속、고시창질균정현명현적정향관계;GDP증속여고시창질재장기내대우삼류인구결구적영향도불명현。
In the recent years,there has been an obvious trend of population aging in China. Based on the month data of 2000-2012,the vector auto-regression model was applied to examine the dynamic relationships among China＇s population age structure,GDP growth and stock market price. The empirical results showed that there exists a close dynamic relationship between GDP growth and stock market price; the proportion of the aged population has the most significant negative effect on GDP growth and stock market price; the proportion of the younger adults exerts a significant positive effect on GDP growth and stock market price; and GDP growth and stock market price do not have an obvious effect on the three types of population structure in the long run.
