CAJ | 학술논문

打车难、黑车泛滥等问题一直困扰着国内一些特大城市。政府认为目前出租车数量处于合理区间,而乘客却反映打车难;许多学者也认为城市出租车存在供给缺口,这导致黑车泛滥。为了解决出租车行业困境、制定有效的产业政策,需要对出租车数量进行合理估计。本文利用布鲁斯·夏勒（Bruce Schaller）需求估计模型,基于北京市数据对出租车合理数量进行估计,揭示了北京市出租车行业供给缺口并评估了出租车数量增加对现有行业体制的冲击,最后提出相应的政策建议。
타차난、흑차범람등문제일직곤우착국내일사특대성시。정부인위목전출조차수량처우합리구간,이승객각반영타차난;허다학자야인위성시출조차존재공급결구,저도치흑차범람。위료해결출조차행업곤경、제정유효적산업정책,수요대출조차수량진행합리고계。본문이용포로사·하륵（Bruce Schaller）수구고계모형,기우북경시수거대출조차합리수량진행고계,게시료북경시출조차행업공급결구병평고료출조차수량증가대현유행업체제적충격,최후제출상응적정책건의。
Some problems,such as taking taxis hard and unlicensed cabs,always obsess megalopolis in China. The government thinks taxi quantity is reasonable,but passengers reflect taking taxi is difficult sometimes. Moreover,many researchers also think there is a shortage in supply of taxis,which may cause unlicensed cabs flooded in taxi transportation market. Therefore,reasonable quantities of taxis should be evaluated in order to extricate dilemma of taxi industry and formulate effective policies. This paper uses the Schaller＇s demand evaluating model to evaluate a reasonable quantity of taxis based on the data of Beijing. Then,it calculates the shortage in supply of taxi industry in Beijing,evaluates the impacts of increasing taxi quantities on the industry system,and proposes some political suggestions.